I think most of us immediately assumed no team was challenging that record, especially one with so little cap space. That's where we're wrong. Quietly, as Van Gundy pointed out, the Heat have constructed a pretty deep team. They currently have 17 players under contract, which they will have to cut to 15 by the start of the season. 8 of those 17 are getting paid less than one million dollars this season.
Since the official roster still isn't set, and it's difficult to predict how the Heat and the 29 other teams will come together, it would be best to go about answering this question by examining some of the traits that made the 1995-96 Bulls so successful.
Anderson and many others questioned Jordan's ability to return to his old form. Jordan and Co. returned the next year determined to prove they were still the best team in the NBA. They didn't take a game off. Hell, they rarely took a play off. The Bulls stream rolled through the regular season winning 72 games and continued their dominance into the playoffs, going 16-3 en route to NBA championship. That playoff run included a sweep of the Magic.
The Heat should have the same chip on their shoulder that the Bulls did. It's hard to imagine a more criticized team in recent memory than this year's Heat, and they haven't even played a game yet. The Big Three should be eager to prove the doubters wrong and show that three superstars can coexist. I'm sure James also would like to extract a little revenge for some of the "sidekick" insults that have been directed his way.
What better way to piss NBA fans off even more than to break the all-time season wins record? The Celtics tried in 2008 and fell short. History has shown that the first year of a potential dynasty is the year to make a run at the record. If the Heat are going to attempt a 73 win season it will be this year.
Depth. Most people, with good reason, questioned how a team would be able to compete with three maximum level contracts on the books. The easy answer is recruit role players who are willing to accept less money to play for a championship contender. The Bulls had two stars in Jordan and Pippen that they surrounded with excellent role players.
Steve Kerr and Jud Bueschler provided three point shooting off the bench. Ron Harper and Toni Kukoc provided scoring and solid defense off the bench. Dennis Rodman was a rebounding and defensive specialist, while Luc Longley, John Salley, and Bill Wennington were all big bodies that clogged the middle. With the exception of Rodman and maybe Kukoc, none of these players were household names, but were essential to the championship run.
Looking over the Heat's roster, there are some similarities to the Bulls. They also have the two superstars in James and Wade, as well as a low post scorer in Bosh (something the Bulls didn't have). They have Eddie House and Mike Miller to shoot threes. Ilgauskaus, Anthony, Pittman, and Magloire to clog up the middle and save Bosh some low post fouls.
Miami will need someone to step up and become a consistent scorer off the bench. The Bulls had Kukoc, the Sixth Man of the Year, to provide offense off the bench. The Heat have no one near that level. However, the Heat do have the luxury of resting either LeBron or Wade at different times. They can slide in a more traditional point guard, Mike Miller at the 2 or 3, and either Wade at the 2 or James at the 3. Spoelstra has a number of players that can play multiple positions, which could potentially lessen the need for bench scoring. It will be interesting to see how Spoelstra constructs his lineups.
Defense. A lot of people forget how good the 95-96 Bulls were defensively. Their defense got overshadowed because they were the number one offense in the league that year. They were also the best defensive team in the league, giving up an average of 92 points per game.
While First Team Defensive Selections are often questionable to say the least (look at last year's First Team for an example), the Bulls have three players (Jordan, Pippen, and Rodman) selected to the NBA All-Defensive First Team. All three deserved that honor. To put this into perspective, you would have to go back to the 1982-83 season to find the last time three teammates made the All-Defensive First Team, when Bobby Jones, Moses Malone, and Maurice Cheeks represented the 76ers. It's only been done five times since the league began giving out the honor for the 1968-69 season. No three teammates have been selected to the First Team since the Bulls trio.
James and Wade should be First Team defenders and if they commit themselves defensively this year, they will be. However, the Heat don't have a third player that could be considered an elite defender. In fact, they have a plethora of below average defenders. Let's say, hypothetically, this is Miami's starting lineup for next year:
Dwyane Wade - SG
Mike Miller - SF
Udonis Haslem - PF
Chris Bosh - C
Wade and James have the ability to lock down anyone, but those other three could be serious defensive liabilities. Miller's a below average defender who's there strictly for his three point shooting. While Haslem works hard, at 6'8 he's an undersized power forward. Bosh has never been known for his defense and has routinely been bossed around in the paint by larger centers. Looking at the bench, it doesn't appear that the Heat have a many defensive options they can bring in either.
Defense will be the key to a run at 73 wins. Spoelstra is praised within NBA circles for his defensive game plans. Let's see what he can do with this team.
Of course there will be some other factors that could prevent the Heat from reaching 73 wins. The Eastern Conference is much improved this year. In 1995-96 the East only had three teams who won 50 or more games. In 2010-11 that number could double. Add that to the fact that teams are bound to lose a few games to inferior competition during the regular season. The Bulls lost to the 21 win Raptors.
Another important factor will be how many games the Big Three play this year. It may not be one of their goals to win 73, or that goal may be out of reach, so the regulars could be rested towards the end of the season. This is most often the case in today's NBA, where teams who have already clinched a particular seed will begin to rest their players in the last two weeks of the season.
So can the Heat win 73? I think they can, but I'm going to say they won't. I think a win total in the mid 60s will be more likely. Ultimately, it will come down to how they play defense, whether the players want to commit to playing a full NBA season, and if they can stay injury free. A lot of things have to go right for the Heat, but if this offseason is any indication, a lot of things already have.
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