Friday, August 13, 2010

Ariza Deal Doesn't Make Sense For The Hornets

It appears the Hornets have made the same mistake the Cavaliers once did. They've catered to their superstar player with the hopes of keeping him happy and in uniform for the rest of his career. The sad reality is that, just as in Cleveland's case, this will blow up in their faces.
Chris Paul has made no secret about his desire to leave New Orleans. He said he wanted to play in New York if Carmelo ended up there, then changed his stance, and directed his attention towards Orlando.
Paul has two years left on his contract with the Hornets and a player option for a third year. In that short time frame, the Hornets can do all they want to try and build a contender around Paul, but this simple point remains: Come 2012, Paul will likely opt out of his contract and take his talents elsewhere.
After examining all aspects of this trade, the only way to justify it is if the Hornets were trying to please Paul. They added an athletic wing man who can likely compliment Paul in the uptempo fast break game. They also get rid of the rookie point guard who stepped in after Paul's injury and proved he could play just as well as Paul did. Don't underestimate this point. I doubt Paul wanted Collison around taking minutes from him. Paul and Collison are too small to start in the same back court.
Essentially, this is what the Hornets did. They gave up their most valuable player not named Paul and a solid contributor off the bench. They added 5 million to their salary cap, despite downgrading their talent. They will also be stuck with Ariza until the 2014-15 season, when he will be making 7 million a year. In the two years after Paul is likely gone, Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza will account for 20 million dollars a year. Terrible.
Even if Ariza does fit in with the offense and makes the team better, this trade still won't make sense. Ariza is not the missing piece to a playoff push. With the possibility of David West opting out of his contract next year, this looks like a bad team two years from now.
The Hornets should have traded Paul this offseason. While it hurts the team's image and makes it look like players have all the power, this would be the best thing for the Hornet's long term. They can begin to build their team around Collison. With Paul gone, Stojakovic and Songaila's contracts expiring, coupled in with West opting out, the Hornets clear 35 million from their payroll next year.
Obviously, there's some uncertainty about the CBO for next year, but the Hornets would be better off starting fresh as soon as possible, instead of suffering for two more years, only to lose Paul in the end.
Instead, the Hornets gave up their best young player, will likely miss the playoffs the next two years, and see Paul move on.
Unless if Paul signs a long term extension, what he wants shouldn't be part of the equation.

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