Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Now or Never For US Soccer

Heading into their third game of group play and yet to record a victory, the US is in about as good a position as they could hope to be in for their game against Algeria tomorrow morning. It's simple, if the US wins, they advance to the next round. The ability to control their own destiny is about as much as they could ask for at this point.
Here's the other possible situations in which the US could advance:
US and Algeria draw, Slovenia defeats England. Not a far fetched scenario, especially considering how poorly England as played thus far. However, I wouldn't count on England to lose. They've already played about as bad as they're capable of playing and have still tied both games. If they do lose though, Slovenia will come out of the group with 7 points and the number one seed, and the US will be the two seed with 5 points.
US and Algeria draw, Slovenia and England draw. If both the US and England end up drawing, they'll each finish with 3 points, but the US will advance if England does not outscore them by two goals. Currently the US has scored 3 goals, and England 1. A draw is very possible in both games. The US put themselves in an advantageous position by scoring two goals against Slovenia.
On the flip side, if the US loses to Algeria they will be eliminated. This would be crushing for a team that was expected to make it to the round of 16. This has to be treated as a must win game. There would be nothing worse than drawing Algeria and finding out the English won, putting themselves and Slovenia into the next round. Of course, had the referee gotten the call right and awarded the US their third goal of the Slovenia match, and the win, they would be in a much better position now. But we can't dwell on that now, the US had no business giving up two goals in that game to begin with.
They key to the Algeria game will be the key to every US game from here on out: They have to eliminate the early goal. Playing from behind is a death sentence for the US, especially since a draw doesn't guarantee they advance. They have enough firepower to penetrate the solid Algeria defense, whether the US can maintain their defensive focus in the first fifteen minutes of the game remains to be seen.

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