Tuesday, June 15, 2010

NBA Finals: 6 Down, 1 to Go

The biggest story of this game was obviously Kendrick Perkins's injury. He sprained his knee only seven minutes into the first quarter and never returned. With Perkins out, the Celtics have no one who can match up with Gasol defensively in the post. Doc Rivers trotted out KG, Shelden Williams, Glen Davis, and Rasheed Wallace, none of which had much success. Gasol had his way in the post, scoring 17 points and pulling down 13 rebounds, 5 of them offensive. Plain and simple, if Perkins can't play in Game 7, the Celtics will not win.
One surprising stat I just cooked up was that in the Celtics 3 wins, they have only outscored the Lakers bench by an average of 8.6 points. I would hav thought that number to be over 10, and most of that margin was made up in their Game 4 victory, when they outscored the Laker bench by 18. In Game 6, they were outscored 25-13 by the Laker bench. While it isn't essential for the Celtic bench to score big for them to win, they need to at least outscore the Laker bench.
How about Shannon Brown? Everytime I see him make a spectacular dunk I think that he won't be able to top it, but somehow every time he does. Nate Robinson is the only other player in the game I can think of that currently could challenge his vertical leap. One thing is for sure though, no one in the NBA is able to showcase their vertical during the game like Brown does. If Brown could develop a respectable jumper and handle the ball a little better, he could play 35 minutes a game for most teams.
In other news not related to the NBA Finals, Tom Izzo has rejected the Cavs offer and decided to stay with Michigan State. This news to me says LeBron isn't coming back without actually saying it. Izzo's salary gets doubled and he gets a chance to coach the best player in the game, and he turns that down? I realize the track record of successful college coaches jumping to the pros isn't good, but something tells me LeBron's status is what prevented him from taking this job.
So who wins Game 7? I'm taking the Lakers, not because of their dominant Game 6 performance, but because I had them all along. I think it will be a very close game actually, assuming Perkins can play and is 100 percent. If the Celtics want to win I think Rajon Rondo needs close to a triple double. He'll be close in rebounds and assists, it's the points that worry me. Allen, Pierce, and Garnett will get theirs, expect each to have 15 to 20 points. The question is, where can the Celtics make up 35 points? I don't trust their bench enough to produce in such a big game. Rondo needs 20 to 25 to ease the burden.

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