Forecasting the Top 5 Picks

Monday's NBA Draft lottery had the feel of one of those bad bar jokes. Ok, so an old woman, a Russian billionaire, and a former McDonald's All-American walk into a bar...
Such was the set up for the Washington Wizard's unlikely win of the number 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft. The Wizards (26-56) had a 10.3 percent chance of winning. The Philadelphia 76ers moved up to 2nd, and the favored Nets grabbed the third pick.
Barring trades, here's how the first five picks will look come June 24th.
1) Wizards select John Wall. This is a no brainer for a Wizards franchise that traded Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler mid season, and whose incumbent point guard has had trouble keeping his guns at home. In the last two years, 6 of the 10 players chosen to the First Team All Rookie Team were point guards. Including the last two Rookie of the Year award winners, Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans. In a league that has becoming increasingly dependent on dominant point guards, Wall is the clear choice. The Wizards could move Arenas to the 2 to make room for Wall, and they'd have a nice nucleus composed of Wall, Arenas, and Blatche.
2) 76ers select Evan Turner. The Sixers don't get the first pick, their representative Jrue Holiday rejoices because his starting spot will still be intact. Turner would fit in at the 3, making a nice complement to Andre Iguodala. They both like to get to the basket, but with the ball in Iguodala's hands most of the time, Turner will need to develop a consistent mid range jumper. He'll see plenty of those when teams key on Iguodala's penetration to the hoop.
3) Nets select Derrick Favors. I have to admit, it would have been a lot more interesting had the Nets gotten the number 1 overall pick. That would have allowed them to draft Wall, clear cap room by trading Harris, and possibly pursue two max level free agents. Well, that's not happening now, so the Nets will go with the next available player, Derrick Favors. Favors is a work in progress on offense, however, he will immediately replace the Yi Jianlin/Josh Boone combination at PF. Favors will be a better rebounder than both of them and should develop into a much better low post scorer as well.

4) Timberwolves select Wesley Johnson. The Timberwolves will be tempted to draft Kentucky C DeMarcus Cousins, but will be content with their C/PF combination of Kevin Love and Al Jefferson. Johnson would be a steal at number 4. He's a better shooter and more athletic than Turner. Turner is a better ball handler and can create his own shot, but in the right situation I could see Johnson developing into a better pro.
5) Sacramento Kings select DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins could step in and start immediately in Sacramento alongside Jason Thompson at PF. The only thing dropping Cousins this low is a perceived attitude problem. Right now, he's a better player than Favors. He has a much more polished offensive game, including a soft touch around the basket and is even a capable mid-range shooter. Cousins will further contribute to a team that is already in the top 10 in RPG.