Day 13: Blazers-Mavericks (Game 6)

The first round of the NBA Playoffs is finally over and consequently, so is my Daily NBA Blog series. I know what you're thinking: "Who cares? I didn't really read any of them anyway, well, maybe the Bulls ones, and I skimmed over a few points in the others. I figured you'd be regurgitating the same old, tired story lines and didn't really feel like rereading them from a less reputable source."

Well, imaginary reader, you're not entirely wrong. But why such harsh judgement? Just because I've been known to come up short a time or two hundred doesn't mean I can't trump history and come through in the clutch. With the Dallas Mavericks as my witness, I'm asserting myself and shattering the preconceived notions that define me.

The Blazers were the popular upset pick (I picked them in six!) in the first round. Portland seemed to have put it all together, fully incorporating Gerald Wallace into their plans. They also put the clamps on Dallas in the last week of the season. Add to the equation Dallas' fair reputation as Playoff choke-artists and the ingredients for an upset seemed to be layed out in a straight line on the kitchen counter.

The most fascinating thing about this series is that, save for the last five minutes of Game 6, it went according to "plan." Dallas and Portland each took their first two home games. Dallas started Game 5 sluggish, slowly recovered, and blew Portland out in the second half. It was the type of "false-confidence" game Dallas has so willfully provided over the last five years. Just when you think they're destined for something great, they uphold your expectations and drop them at the pace of a JJ Barea floater.

Let's head to the the 44 second mark of the third quarter in Game 6. Jason Terry hits a long jumper to put the Mavericks up 75-58, the largest lead they would have all game. All the better. They have built up a lead perfectly suited to make Dallas fans think they're in control, and just close enough to make NBA fans feel like the Mavs can fuck this up. Portland follows with a LaMarcus Aldridge layup and two Gerald Wallace free throws to close out the quarter. 75-62. The seeds of a collapse have been planted.

The fourth quarter also begins according to "plan." Portland gets off to a 9-2 run and Dallas' 17-point lead from four minutes ago has suddenly dwindled to six with just under ten minutes remaining. Then Dirk Nowitzki happened. Dallas starts pounding the ball in the post to Nowitzki and he makes three straight shots, including his patented, one-legged fadeaway that I can't even convert regularly on my mini-hoop. Aldridge matched Nowitzki's brilliance and the game seemed to be heading towards a battle of bests. Give the ball to your best player, get the hell out of the way, and hope he can outscore the other team's best player.

A Gerald Wallace dunk with five and a half minutes left put the Blazers within one. The Blazers seemed poised to take over the game but didn't convert a field goal attempt for five minutes. The Mavericks inexplicably went away from Nowitzki but Terry, Marion, and Kidd put Portland away with a number of clutch shots of their own.  Nowitzki closed the game out with eight straight free throws.

Portland's future of contending for a Championship rests on Greg Oden's knees; not an enviable position. Meanwhile, Dallas reversed the choke narrative that had been written for them and we can finally see the Kobe-Dirk match up that somehow has alluded us all these years. With the NBA as their witness, the Dallas Mavericks asserted themselves and broke from the preconceived notions that defined them. But can they do it again? And again, and again....

Since it went so well the first time (semi-sarcasm) here are my second round picks:

EAST

(1) Bulls vs. (5) Hawks ---> Bulls in 5

(2) Heat vs. (3) Celtics ---> Heat in 7

WEST

(8) Grizzlies vs. (4) Thunder --->  Thunder in 6

(2) Lakers vs. (3) Mavericks ---> Lakers in 6  

Shout out to the Grizzlies, whose Game 6 victory I only caught parts of. Hence, I won't be writing about it. Zach Randolph is the best story of the Playoffs so far.

San Antonio's 70 Win Pace

I usually don't start paying attention to the NBA standings until after the All-Star break. Playoff positioning is usually determined in the last two months, as teams either cement their standing or make a deal to try and move up. But what the Spurs are doing this regular season so far deserves special attention.
Now I knew the Spurs were rolling, obviously, but I wasn't aware of the waters they're currently treading. When the Western Conference standings scrolled across my TV screen a few nights ago and I saw: 1) San Antonio Spurs - 35-6 (the Spurs beat the Raptors yesterday and are now 36-6), I had to do a double take. 35-6!? I did some quick math. That's 41 games, the midway point of the NBA season. I did some more math. They're on pace for 70 wins. That's dangerously close to the 1996 Bulls' record setting 72 win season.
It's not like I pop bottles after the the last team loses their 11th game every year. In fact, I don't think about the record at all. I always kind of assumed it would never be broken. It takes a steady combination of luck, health, motivation, and talent to even approach 70 wins. It's rare to see these four factors working in unison in today's NBA.
Still, three teams in recent history have come close: The 2007 Mavericks (67 wins), 2008 Celtics (66 wins), and 2009 Cavaliers (66 wins). All three teams have two things in common:
1) The core of each team was in the primes of their career.
2) A huge motivating factor (I'll explain them next) occurred the year before. This factor inspired them so much that they returned the next year and took the league by storm.

2007 MAVERICKS   
Ages of Core Players: Dirk Nowitzki (28), Josh Howard (26), Jason Terry (29).
Motivating Factor: Up 2-0 in the 2006 NBA Finals, the Mavericks held a 13 point lead in Game 3 with just over 6 minutes left in the game. The Mavs were outplayed in the first half but had put together an excellent defensive 3rd quarter, outscoring the Heat 34-16 and took that momentum into the 4th. The Heat mounted a furious comeback behind Wade's 42 points (and 18 free throw attempts) to edge out the Mavs 98-96. It should be noted that Nowitzki had an opportunity to tie the game with one second on the clock, but missed his second free throw.
The Mavs went on to lose the next three games, completing one of the most epic collapses in NBA history. Motivated by how they went out the year before, the Mavs dominated regular season competition all year. But we all remember what happened next. They choked again. This time in the first round against 8th seeded Golden State. Can you think of a worse way to lose in two consecutive years?

2008 CELTICS
Ages of Core Players: Kevin Garnett (31), Paul Pierce (30), Ray Allen (32)
Motivating Factor: The Celtics had won 24 games the year before and had been slowly wasting the prime years of Pierce's career. Then Boston GM Danny Ainge got bold and dealt for veteran future Hall of Famers Garnett and Allen. Despite already decorated careers, neither of the three had won a Championship. Ainge's message was clear: Championship or bust.
The Celtics terrorized the league, starting the season 27-3. It was obvious that this team was taking nothing for granted and came to play every night. Add to that a weak division, and the Celtics were practically unbeatable in the regular season. At this time, Rajon Rondo was looked at as a possible liability.
Despite their struggles in the first two rounds, the Celtics went on to defeat the Lakers in the Finals and vindicate the careers of the Big Three.

2009 CAVALIERS
Age of Core Players: LeBron James (24), Mo Williams (26). Who was the third wheel on this team? Was there even a third wheel? I think that speaks to how good LeBron was playing.
Motivating Factor: Two year prior the Cavs (or should I say LeBron) made an improbable run to the NBA Finals. They capitalized off a weak Eastern Conference and the spectacular individual play of James. Their run was cut short by who else but the San Antonio Spurs in the Finals.
The following year, the Cavs were pitted against the newly formed Boston team in the second round. They lost but took Boston to seven games and looked like a team on the verge. The Celtics also showed signs of weakness that year, as they went 0-6 on the road in the first two rounds. The Cavs were poised to takeover the East, and LeBron -- the league.
The Cavs steamrolled through the first two rounds sweeping both Detroit and Atlanta. While LeBron averaged 38.5 points a game in the EC Finals, it wasn't enough to take down a Magic team that was firing on all cylinders and feeding off the confidence of defeating Boston the round before.

Now for a look at the Spurs. Here's what they've done in the regular season the last 10 years. Their playoff seed is in parentheses next to their win total.
2001 - 58 (1), Lost WC Finals
2002 - 58 (2), Lost in Semifinal
2003 - 60 (1), Won Championship
2004 - 57 (3), Lost in Semifinal
2005 - 59 (2), Won Championship
2006 - 63 (1), Lost in Semifinal
2007 - 58 (3), Won Championship
2008 - 56 (3), Lost in WC Finals
2009 - 54 (3), Lost in First Round
2010 - 50 (7), Lost in Semifinal

And here are some offseason playoff seed predictions for the Spurs:
Basketball-Reference - 3rd
CBSSports.com - 3rd
SI.com - 4th
ESPN.com - 5th
Sporting News - 8th

It's safe to say that no one expected the Spurs to perform the way they have up to this point. But why? Perhaps they set the bar too high . From 2000-08 they averaged 59 wins a season and won three Championships. The last two years they've averaged 52 wins (we're going to pretend like that's a bad thing) and were eliminated in the first round in 2008, and swept out of the second round in 2009. In other words, it appeared like the dynasty was about to crumble.
But let's not forget that in 2008 Ginobili missed half the season and the playoffs. In 2009, the Spurs struggled to incorporate Richard Jefferson into the offense and made an effort to get younger. Needless to say, it was going to take a year to adjust. But when you're an aging team and get swept by the uptempo Suns' offense, the easy explanation is that you are too old to contend anymore.
What intrigues me the most about the Spurs is they defy the two categories of a 70-win challenger I layed out earlier. Duncan (34) and Ginobili (33), while still effective players, are past their prime. They haven't made any huge additions, and no Tiago Splitter doesn't count. Not yet, at least. (Interesting sidenote: The sites that predicted the Spurs would finish in the Top 3 did so with the assumption that Splitter would be more of a contributor than he has been this year).
So what is their motivating factor? It has been three years since they were serious Championship contenders. I have three theories.
1) They've finally developed the chemistry with Jefferson and the younger players they expected last year. Duncan and Ginobili don't have to play as many minutes, which is a huge bonus.
2) We were so blinded by the Lakers and Thunder in the offseason that we forgot there were other teams in the West capable of making it to the Finals. Everyone (myself included) basically gave the West to the Lakers, and another, smaller contingent bought into the Scoring Title/Team USA hype surrounding Durant. Our obsessions with those teams probably led us to forget how good the Spurs have been and still are.
3) The Spurs want badly to beat the Lakers. The Lakers eliminated the Spurs from the 2001, 2002, 2004, and 2008 playoffs. That's four years out of a possible seven! The Spurs did get some revenge in 2003 when they defeated the Lakers in the Conference Semifinals en route to the Championship. There would be no better way than to take down the Lakers when everybody crowned them champs in the offseason and viewed the Spurs as an afterthought.
Or maybe the Spurs are just underappreciated and have been for the last decade? Yeah. I like that one the best.