Chocolate Shoulders

Somehow this went virtually unnoticed during the 2011 All-Star festivities. Playful, yet unsettling metonymy or: 

Raymond Felton is figuring out a way to get Dwight to Portland. It's the hardest he's worked in years.

The Inevitable Tandems

Superstars change teams. A year and a half ago, following The Decision, 'pundits' tried to convince us otherwise. The most popular and definitive of statements to come from the mess: "Micheal Jordan never would have done that." 'That' being the most vile and disgusting atrocity one man could commit against another, verbalized in an all-too-serious tone. LeBron James' arrival in Miami was supposed to signify the end of competitive balance in the NBA and usher in an era were the league's superstars placed money (even though James took a pay cut), a desirable place to live, and playing alongside friends above winning. Winning, supposedly a player's sole concern in the good ol' days, is an easy concept to trumpet when players aren't making as much money or afforded the same less-restrictive free agent policies. These buzzword-driven discussions in the summer of 2010 didn't mean much. They all became different ways to say, I DON'T WANT THE BEST PLAYERS IN THE LEAGUE PLAYING FOR THE SAME TEAM, unless these players happen to collude their way on to the team I root for, in which case, I'm all for it.

Carmelo Anthony was last year's high profile player attempting to switch teams. Rather than wait for free agency, he sped the process up. He demanded a sign-and-trade because he could make more money signing the Nuggets' extension than signing as a free agent with the Knicks under the new CBA. Despite his selfish motives, I still thought he was doing the kind thing. He made it be known he wasn't going to resign with the Nuggets so they could get something in return for him. Denver did acquire a nice haul and to this day, various people on Twitter brings up how successful the Nuggets have been since they traded Carmelo. Cleveland was left with Antawn Jamison and no 2010 draft picks when LeBron left. Anthony to the Knicks was viewed as another instance of superstars teaming up.

Chris Paul was this year's Carmelo. He never explicitly stated where he wanted to go, but made it known he wasn't resigning with the Hornets. When news broke he was heading to the Lakers, the same outrage directed towards LeBron and Carmelo was not there. Part of this was probably due to the fact Kobe was no longer in his prime. David Stern, by vetoing the trade, also took plenty of heat and discussion away what the Lakers team would have actually looked like. When the Paul deal with the Clippers was finalized, the reactions were anything but disappointment. People were excited. LOB CITY! This excitement, no doubt, was motivated by the potential to see exciting basketball. But why not the same complaints of superstars teaming up? Is Blake Griffin not viewed as a superstar, or did the Clippers franchise, the NBA's model of futility, ease the burden? They're the Clippers, how much of a threat could they possibly be?

Dwight Howard has always been a popular target for criticism. He smiles too much. He's too nice. He can't control his temper. He's too mean. He doesn't have a post game. His entire persona is contrived, in the same way Shaq's was. He's bolting to LA to follow in Shaq's footsteps. Like Shaq, despite dominating the league, we'll speak of Howard in terms of what he could have been. Well, Howard developed a post game. He's curbed his on-court temper. For what it's worth (nothing), he's not smiling as much anymore. Unlike LeBron, Howard and Paul have been absolved of the blame surrounding their team's shortcomings. Where LeBron is typically accused of not getting it done with a good enough bunch, Howard and Paul are victims of incompetent front offices. For this reason, in addition to the general public's desensitization to superstar movement, Howard isn't being killed for wanting to switch teams.

I can't help but laugh at the talk surrounding Howard, though. No one is mad about Howard wanting to switch teams, but they are mad about which teams he wants to go to. His wish list is reportedly limited to the Nets, Lakers, and Mavericks. In IDEAL-NBA, where winning is everything, Chicago seems like a no-brainer. The Bulls have tradeable assets, including a center to replace Howard in Orlando. They have the best point guard in the league to complete a duo that makes more basketball sense than any of the other superstar pairings. But Howard doesn't want to go to Chicago. Speculation ranging from Howard's ego to Adidas' secret motives to Rose's disinterest in recruiting have all been used to explain away Howard's 'faulty' decision-making. We're back to square one. People cannot comprehend that a basketball player could be motivated by something beyond winning a championship immediately.

Save for his free throw shooting, there is very little observers can criticize about Howard's game anymore. He's developed the low post game his fans and detractors have been clamoring for. His mere presence practically guarantees a Top-5 defense. He is the NBA's best rebounder and at times its most dominant player. All that is left to bitch about are his team choices, which feels funny looking back to the negative feelings surrounding superstar movement only two summers ago. It seems that fans of the sport have accepted that superstars will change teams to play with other superstars. Then question becomes, how entertaining will these partnerships be for me, the fan? Fans, I think are no longer falling for 'good ol' days' sentiments that were never true to begin with. They feel superstars teaming up in desirable markets is almost inevitable, and just ask that these tandems make basketball sense.

Day 4: Magic vs. Hawks (Game 2)

I think of Dwight Howard as an aggressive driver. He has a vision of where he wants to go but is constantly impeded by basketball's version of "No Left Turn" signs, slow drivers, and radar-gun-toting police officers. Howard wants to take his sweet ass time on the free throw line. He wants to swing the ball over his head but a defender's cheek bone is always in the way. He wants to run the floor and establish quick low-post position, but there's always a smaller, inferior player waiting to flop into the third row. Howard recognizes the game's expansiveness but is unable to adapt to the traffic cones scattered across the court.

Worse yet, Howard doesn't trust the police...er....referees. He believes they are out to get him. Watch how LeBron, Wade, or 2011 Derrick Rose operate. They're confident that when the time comes, they can force the referee to rule in their favor. Howard operates with the knowledge that it's him against the world. He'll receive a blow to the ribs or a slap across the face and can do nothing but flash that incredulous stare. He knows that the slightest, well, slight of the referee's hand will get him T'd up, and still is unable to contain himself.

But make no mistake, Howard has been contained. It could be his personality or it could be his wavering confidence in the ref's ability to protect him, but we're not seeing Howard fully realized. He's arguably the most dominant player in the game and there is not one NBA observer who thinks he couldn't be more dominant. Will Howard learn to suppress his aggressiveness just enough to avoid the squad car nestled within the bushes? Can he recognize where the squad cars typically hide? Or will he be content as the driver of a Maserati, going 45 miles per hour along with the Camrys?   

The Magic will always be about Howard. At least until he bolts to LA, anyway. His teammates can sometimes be nothing more than scenery. Dwight could morph into 1962 Wilt Chamberlain, average 50 and 25 a night (not as much of a stretch as it seems playing 48 minutes a night), and the Magic would still lose. Howard does his thing, but Orlando is still viewed as a team that lives and dies at the three-point line. Howard's defense and offensive numbers are constant but it is Orlando's three-point shooting that puts them over the top.

How then, did they win Game 2 after draining only five of their 23 three-pointers? Unexpected contributions from Howard, of course. Forget about Dwight's numbers, Atlanta has defended him masterfully in this series so far. They've refused to double team him, allowing the four-headed monster (Jason Collins, Etan Thomas, Josh Powell, and Zaza Pachulia) to go one-on-one. All four have enough size and strength (and six fouls) to hang with Howard for the required five to twenty minutes. Collins in particular has done a great job of stripping the ball from Howard in the post. Dwight already has 15 turnovers in two games, in large part due to Collins' active hands.

The Hack-A-Howard strategy backfired on Atlanta in Game Two. Howard, who shot 59 percent from the line this year, went 15-19 from the line. Sure, Jason Richardson's three to put Orlando up seven with just over a minute to play was the biggest shot of the game. Al Horford's early foul trouble and subsequent inability to get into the flow of the game was huge. The fact that Howard only attempted 12 shots is a painful reminder that even he can disappear during crucial stretches of a game. But ultimately, Howard's free throw shooting was the difference. That's probably not what Orlando wants to rely on to win a game.

Howard has sat out TWO minutes through the first TWO games. The Magic barely came out with a win from their home court advantage. Exactly how many of his teammates can Howard pile into that Maserati? It is on the verge of breaking down.

Big, Imposing Question Marks

Minding my own business a few days ago, I noticed a retweet from someone I was following which read something like this: "1) Rose wins MVP 2) Tibs wins COY 3) Bulls get 1 seed 4) Bulls win finals." The tweet, typed in earnest, was retweeted to mock Bulls fans and their tendency to be "a little" delusional.
But looking at that list, all of those things are possible, right? I've prided myself in remaining, or at least trying to remain rational throughout this season. The last thing I want to do is fall off the wagon now.
Either way, the tweet got me to thinking about the percent chance of each scenario occurring. These numbers are not based on any higher formula, just a simple high or low number used to signify likelihood.
Tom Thibodeau wins Coach of the Year --> 90 Percent. The COY trend is well known by now: give the award to the coach of the league's most improved team. Fresh off of two straight 41 win seasons and low playoff seeds, the Bulls are now in line to secure a Top 3 seed and a win total in the upper-50s. Most people expected the Bulls to improve, but not to the degree they have. A 4 seed and 50 wins seemed about right in preseason, and that was assuming the team would be healthy. Thibs has preached defense since day one and it shows. The Bulls are winning games on the defensive end.
Gregg Popovich is another candidate, but is often overlooked for the honor because the Spurs have been consistently good for so long. I'm not sure a 68 win season would even win him the award this year.
A wild card is first-year 76ers coach Doug Collins. Collins not only has Philadelphia in the playoff hunt, but challenging the Knicks for the sixth spot. In reality, the 76ers are probably the biggest surprise team of the NBA thus far. But a potential sixth seed doesn't compete with a possible one seed and legitimate Finals hopes.
Derrick Rose wins MVP --> 75 Percent. I've been going back and forth with this number. A few days ago I thought it was just right. Today, I feel it might be a little high. For the last month or so the MVP race seemed to be between D. Rose and LeBron. LeBron had the disadvantage of the whole Decision/playing with other superstars thing. Also, like the Spurs, he's so consistently good, we tend to overlook him. Rose seemed to be cast as the anti-LeBron and benefited from the misconception that Chicago would be a 20-win team without him.
But now Dwight Howard has entered the equation. If you're voting for the MVP based on numbers alone, then Howard deserves the award. Since the trade, he's averaging 25 points, 15 rebounds, and 2 blocks a game. All while shooting 61 percent from the field. Even "video-game numbers" would be an inappropriate way to describe that beautiful stat line. Not to mention, Howard has a bigger impact on the defensive end than any other NBA player and is the sole reason Orlando has been a Top 5 defensive team for so long.
That's great, but isn't the MVP a reflection of his team's success to an extent? Orlando is no slouch, they're 38-22. However, here's something I've found interesting. In almost every Boston, Miami, or Chicago playoff article I've read, the writer has mentioned how important it is for BOS/MIA/CHI to secure the one seed, so they don't have to meet up with either BOS/MIA/CHI in the second round. As if Orlando would be an easy out in round 2. They're being completely overlooked and that has to count for something. The MVP is a regular season award, and the MVP should be on an elite team. Even after the trades, no one is buying that Orlando is an elite team.

Bulls win NBA Finals --> 20 Percent. This number is based off of my opinion that there are five legitimate title contenders: San Antonio, LA, Boston, Miami, and Chicago. I have no idea which team to pick. I think all five are equally capable of tearing through the playoffs, and being exploited. 20 percent is my way of saying the Bulls are one of five teams, and I don't think any team is the favorite.
The Bulls are 5-3 against these teams, with a losing record only against Boston (1-2). They have the size to match up with Boston and LA, the athleticism to hang with Miami, and the defensive prowess to contain San Antonio. It would help though, if they could win this upcoming game against Miami, and secure at least one road win against an elite team.
Bulls earn the 1 Seed --> 15 percent. If the Bulls were to procure the number one seed in the East, they'd need two things to happen:
1) Boston to lose in Chicago and Miami, in addition to blowing a few "gimme" road games. The Celtics have the fifth highest road winning percentage in the NBA.
2) Miami needs to continue their futility against good teams and lose at least half of their next ten games.
Here's the breakdown:

CELTICS 43-15
12 of 24 remaining games against playoff teams
13 Road Games
@Chicago, @Miami

HEAT 43-17
13 of 22 remaining games against playoff teams
9 Road Games
vs. Chicago, vs. Boston

BULLS 41-17
12 of 24 remaining games against playoff teams
13 Road Games
@Miami, vs. Boston

The Heat have the most intriguing race to the 1 seed. Their next ten games are against playoff teams. They have a combined 6-6 record against those teams, plus two meetings with San Antonio, who they haven't played yet. This ten game stretch will make or break their chances of grabbing the top seed. They play 8 of these 10 games at home. If the Heat can come away with 7 or 8 wins in that stretch, they should set themselves up nicely for a push towards the one seed.
The Celtics currently hold a one game advantage over Miami, and two games over Chicago. While they have Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic to incorporate into the system, the core of their team has been together for the last four years. They're a veteran team and, I hate this cliche but, know what it takes to win.
Here's something else the Boston Celtics know: the Chicago Bulls are the only Eastern Conference team that can beat them in a seven game series. I believe wholeheartedly that they're terrified of facing the Bulls in the playoffs. That will be motivation enough to focus on the top spot and hope the Heat can knock the Bulls off. If they have to play the Bulls in the EC Finals, they do so knowing they have home court advantage against a team with limited postseason experience that has played poorly on the road this year.
The Celtics know this is probably their last stand. No way I see them loosening the reins and letting the one seed slip away.
I'm still concerned about the Bulls' propensity to lose on the road and play down to inferior competition. The good news is that they finally have their full team healthy. Perhaps having everyone back will instill a focus in them. Regardless, the Bulls are the dark horse to grab the one seed, and whether they do or not, will likely have the most momentum heading into the playoffs.
A few months from now, we'll have the answers to all of these questions. I'm 100 percent sure of that.