Forecasting The NFC Playoffs

It's about that time again. With 62.5 percent of the NFL season complete, things are starting to fall into place. Minnesota and Dallas will both miss the playoffs and have fired their head coaches, Mike Vick not only is the Eagles' starting quarterback, but is putting together an MVP season, and Detroit is still Detroit, but at least they're not Carolina. Just like we drew it up from the beginning.
There's seven teams that deserve six playoff spots. Only five of those teams will actually make the playoffs. Damn you, NFC West. Here's the NFC playoff picture, as it currently stands.

LOCKS:

Atlanta Falcons (8-2), Projected Finish (13-3, NFC South Champs, #1 Seed)

Green Bay Packers (7-3), Projected Finish (11-5, NFC North Champs, #2 Seed)

New Orleans Saints (7-3), Projected Finish (10-6, NFC Wild Card, #5 Seed)

Whoever wins the NFC West, #4 Seed

Atlanta, Green Bay, and New Orleans are the only three teams I'm prepared to call locks for the playoffs. And of course, someone has to win the NFC West. Will that team be above .500? Probably not. Will a more deserving team, with a better record miss the playoffs because of the way the playoff system is designed? Yes. Does the playoff system need to be changed? Absolutely.
Atlanta is the cream of the NFC crop right now. Not only do they have the best record, but the easiest remaining schedule of the eight potential playoff teams. Next week's home game against Green Bay will be a great measuring stick for both teams, and Atlanta's Week 16 match up with New Orleans will be a golden opportunity for the Saints to cement their playoff spot. The tendency to embrace what is new has everyone falling in love with the Vick-McCoy-Jackson-Celek tandem, but I'm not so sure the more experienced Ryan-Turner-White-Gonzalez tandem isn't more primed for a playoff push.
The Packers could very easily have 8, 9, or even 10 wins at this point. They've lost all three of their games by a field goal, two of those losses coming in overtime. He won't win it, but for my money, Aaron Rodgers is the MVP of the league right now. His top target, tight end Jermichael Finley, and running back Ryan Grant were lost for the year, the offensive line has been shuffled around, and after hiccups against Washington and Miami, it appears the Packers have hit their stride. They'll be tested late in the year, next week at Atlanta, at New England in Week 15, and home games to close out the year against the Giants and Bears. The Packers have found their comfort zone and are settling in at just the right time.
There won't be a Super Bowl let down from the 2010 New Orleans Saints. They still have Drew Brees, meaning they won't have trouble scoring points. Their defense will be key to making the playoffs. New Orleans is currently 2nd in the NFL, allowing only 186 passing yards a game. They're giving up just over 100 yards on the ground per game. Drew Brees and the passing game will always be the focus, but the Saints will go as far as their defense takes them.

THE NFC EAST:

Philadelphia Eagles (7-3), Projected Finish (11-5, NFC East Champs, #3 Seed)

New York Giants (6-4), Projected Finish (9-7, 2nd in NFC East, Miss Playoffs)

I'm officially on the Eagles' bandwagon. Their offense is terrifying. They can beat you in so many ways, some of which we probably haven't even seen yet. Vick's health will be the key. He needs to do a better job of avoiding hits, or he'll be back on the sidelines, watching Kevin Kolb destroy the empire he was building. Next week at Chicago will be their biggest test of the season. Chicago can stop the run, but can they stop the run when Vick is the runner? Save for their rematch against the Giants, the Eagles will have plenty of defenses they can easily exploit in their remaining games.
The Giants are the biggest wild card in the NFC picture. Just three weeks ago they were the team to beat in all of the NFC, now they aren't even the favorite to win their division. The good news for Giants fans is that they have the ability, more so than any other team, of controlling their playoff fate. They've already beaten (dismantled might be a better word) the Bears, a major player in the Wild Card race. They have a home game against Philadelphia, and both games against the Redskins to gain leverage within their division. They also have a game left with Green Bay, which barring a Packer collapse, could also be Wild Card competition.

WHAT ARE THEY DOING HERE?:

Chicago Bears (7-3), Projected Finish (10-6, NFC Wild Card, #6 Seed)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3), Projected Finish (9-7, 3rd in NFC South, Miss Playoffs)

The black sheep of the NFC Playoff picture are clearly the Bears and Bucs. Both teams were expected to be closer to 3-7 at this point in the season, not the other way around. Neither team has looked pretty winning games, but they are winning. The Bears have the better defense, which is why I think they'll be able to stay in the playoff hunt. The key for the Bears is to avoid turnovers. They've had success in the past because they won the turnover battle. Cutler will have to take care of the ball better, especially against the Philadelphia's, Green Bay's, and New York's of the world if they're going to challenge for the last playoff spot.
Not only does Tampa Bay squeak out wins, but they also play in the same division as the Falcons and Saints, ensuring that they will always be overlooked. They have tough match ups remaining against both teams, at New Orleans and the Saints at home. They also have to go to Baltimore this upcoming weekend. All three of those games will be tough. Tampa Bay's Week 14-16 string of Washington on the road, Detroit, and Seattle will be huge. The Bucs have done a great job of stopping the pass this year, and those three teams rank 22nd, 31st, and 30th in rushing, respectively. It's not out of the question that Tampa Bay could finish 10-6 and grab a playoff spot, although I'm still not sold on quarterback Josh Freeman. I think he's still another year away.

SOMEONE'S GOTTA GRAB IT (NFC WEST):

Seattle Seahawks (5-5), Projected Finish (7-9, NFC West Champs, #4 Seed)

St. Louis Rams (4-6), Projected Finish (6-10, 2nd in NFC West, Miss Playoffs)

Yes, I think Seattle will be under .500 to finish the year. They will have a higher seed than two 10 win teams. I don't know what to say about these two teams other than it's wrong that they need to be in the playoff discussion. Here's what I'm hoping happens. The Rams win two of their next five, and the Seahawks win one of their next five. They meet each other in Week 17 of the season, both 6-9. The winner advances to the playoffs. They go scoreless in regulation and a first overtime before Roger Goodell says "Fuck It," let's toss up a coin, neither of you are beating the Saints anyway.  Seattle wins the coin toss and proceeds to lose by 35 at home to New Orleans.