The Curious Case Of CJ Watson

I was occasionally able to sneak glances of the Bulls game in Denver while out Friday night. Denver's lead gradually shrunk every time I looked and eventually evaporated as the Bulls took the lead late in the game. I witnessed CJ Watson, who was starting in place of the injured Derrick Rose, score on a number of drives to the basket, including a drive with 30 seconds remaining to give the Bulls a three point lead.
Then it dawned on me. "I bet Watson went off this game." The type of scoring explosion I've been expecting from him all season off the bench was bound to happen in the game I only saw bits and pieces of.
When I got home, the first thing I did was check the box score. Sure enough, Watson scored 33 points on 11-22 shooting. By far his best game, in what has otherwise been an awful start to his 2010-11 campaign.
With Rose out, Watson was the only viable option at point guard for the Bulls. In fact, they signed John Lucas III before the game to provide depth at the position, and we all know how that worked out. Consequently, Watson played 44 minutes.
If there was one thing that defined Watson's time in Golden State, it was his inconsistent playing time. He'd routinely play 40 plus minutes for a 5-game stretch, and then then drop below 20 minutes for the next few games. Therein lies the problem with Watson's game, or at least the way he's been used since entering the league.
I spent a little more time than I should have calculating some of Watson's split stats, but first, here were his numbers for last season: 10.3 ppg, 27.5 mpg, 46 percent shooting, and 8 FG attempts per game, all career highs.
Prior to the Denver game, Watson's numbers this year: 4.8 ppg, 13 mpg, 37 percent shooting, 5 FG attempts per game.
Looking through Watson's game log (and providing a few of my own calculations), there's a large disparity in his performance based on the amount of minutes he plays and shots he takes. I used 30 minutes and 10 shots a game as a way to measure Watson's effectiveness. I figured that 30 minutes per game could be fairly labelled "starters minutes," and 10 shots a game was a good indicator of an offensive player who is looking to score.
Watson shot an impressive 49 percent from the field when playing over 30 minutes, and just 41 percent when playing less than 30 minutes. That's an incredible dip in shooting percentage that could really only be explained one way: Watson wasn't shooting well, so he didn't play as much. Makes sense, but this wasn't the case. Looking at his numbers, Watson was just as likely to be left on the floor when shooting poorly as he was to be taken off while shooting effectively.
Watson also shot 49 percent from the field when taking ten or more shots. He shot 43 percent when taking less than 10 shots.
If 30 minutes and 10 shots are the magic numbers to Watson's success, then it's no wonder he's been so terrible this year. Prior to the Denver game he hadn't played more than 19 minutes, or taken more than 9 shots in any contest.
Watson can score. I know most Bulls fans don't believe it, or didn't until Friday. This is the same guy who dropped 40 on Sacramento last year. Remember, that Rose's career high is 39. Check out Watson's 40 point game in the video below. I love this video for 3 reasons:
1) The contrast between Watson's stoicism to start the video and his Golden State teammates after he hit his 40-point clinching layup. I get the feeling that Watson, along with Gonzaga, the French nation, and the Knicks fan base all are embarrassed by Ronny Turiaf after watching this.
2) Golden State's throwback "San Francisco" uniforms. I know I'm not the only one that paused and said, "Wait, this is an NBA game, right? Don't tell me this happened in the D-League." There's no D-League team in San Francisco, by the way. San Francisco has a population of about 815 thousand, the average D-League city houses about 284 thousand people.
3) The "Quiet Storm" instrumental playing in the background ("Quiet Storm is Watson's nickname). I think I could upload a video of myself mowing the lawn and make it look like I was undertaking a monumental task by syncing it to this beat.



If you watch the video, you can see that only six of Watson's sixteen baskets were jump shots. He earned most of his points by driving, finishing, and drawing fouls. He's mostly settled for jump shots this year, trying to play within the offense.
Either Watson needs to let loose and take control of the offense like he did during his spot start in Denver, or start working on his outside shot.
Until then, we're left to ponder which Watson we'll see. And what part of the roller coaster ride that has been his career we're on.