The Road To Atlanta

The road to Super Bowl XLV will go through Atlanta. Thanks to the Falcons' 31-10 drubbing of the Carolina Panthers last Sunday, Atlanta clinched the number one overall seed in the NFC for the first time since the 1980-81 season. In honor of the Falcons' 30 year anniversary of first clinching home field advantage, I decided to take my own trip down to Georgia, to see what the road to Atlanta is really like.
I'm of course lying, as I wouldn't be celebrating that anniversary under any circumstances, and don't have the money to take a bus trip for the fun of it. My girlfriend and I had planned on visiting her family in Georgia for some time now and it was purely coincidental that the Falcons had clinched the top seed the weekend before. It's a good thing the Bears clinched a first round bye as well. I spent the last playoff trips watching them in Wisconsin, and was not about to spend this year watching them in Georgia.
Anyway, smooth sailing up until our first stop in Indianapolis at about 3:30 in the morning (we left Chicago at 11:00 PM, and lost an hour when we arrived in Indiana).
Little known fact about Indianapolis: the city is composed entirely of Lucas Oil Stadium. There's seriously nothing else there besides a couple bars and a rubber stamp factory. I was hoping to spot Marvin Harrison incognito sipping from a brown paper bag on a park bench somewhere -- but no such luck.
I slept the next few hours and luckily woke up as we approached Louisville. Louisville may be the most slept on American city, especially during the night. The downtown area sits right on the Ohio River and is lit up at night and I must say, looks spectacular.
I also spotted the KFC Yum! Center, which excited me greatly to see in person. Just a few days before I was watching the always entertaining college basketball rivalry, Kentucky versus Louisville. Louisville was the home team playing at the KFC Yum! Center, a venue I hadn't heard of because it just opened this year. Not only did the name throw me off, but Louisville's student section spent the better part of the first half with KFC buckets on their heads banging at the sides of them. I was convinced I'd been zapped into some alternate reality hell-bent on emphasizing every Southern stereotype that's existed since the mid-1800s. That student section was real, and the stadium was too, as I'd now found out.
If Louisville was the high point of the trip, then what shortly followed was most definitely the low point. We'd stopped in Louisville, got out and stretched for a few minutes and immediately took our seats back on the bus. Bad decision that didn't seem so bad at the time.
Turns out that a drunk guy who'd been making his rounds around the bus since Chicago and making semi-coherent comments under his breath decided to sit behind us. I'd recently layed my bag containing the laptop I'm typing on, my iPod, and a couple books and DVDs under my seat. Bad decision that didn't seem so bad at the time.

My girlfriend and I were merrily munching on some Cheez-It Snack Mix when I heard what sounded like someone throwing a bucket of water to the ground. I looked at my girlfriend. She looked back. I grabbed another handful of Cheez-It Snack Mix.
I heard the sound again and put two and two together. The guy behind us was vomiting -- right on the floor. I reached for the bag first, inspected it and managed so save it from damage. My girlfriend kicked her legs up to the fetal position and remained that way for quite some time.
Even though she was directly in the line of fire, I had no sympathy. She wanted the window seat. One thing that any guy in a relationship knows is that under no circumstances whatsoever will you be riding in the window seat for a prolonged trip. Well, sometimes situations like this one arise, and that window seat with the great view isn't all it's cracked up to be.
I went out to notify our bus driver of the accident. He was a towering presence. Probably 6'2 to 6'4, 250 pounds or so. He had an outline of Tommie Smith and John Carlos raising their fists on the 1968 Olympic podium tattooed on his inner arm.
"Excuse me Tommie," I said. "A man is throwing up on the bus."
"My bus?"
"Yes."
"Ah hell no."
We made our way out to the bus and I realized I'd just called him Tommie. I'm sure he didn't appreciate that. The guilty party had just stepped off the bus with a Styrofoam cup in his hand. He'd apparently tried to throw up in that and failed miserably. The bus driver knew immediately he was the guy.
"Hey Chief, what happened? Too much to drink?"
"Me? Nope. Just ate something funny."
You should have seen my face.
The bus driver summoned one of the station workers. He looked young, carried a mop, wore some cheap glasses, and was not thrilled about his job. Evidently, he was not accustomed to cleaning up vomit at six in the morning.
"They don't pay me enough for this shit," he said. He didn't have to tell me twice.
After the young station worker mopped the floor, the bus driver sprayed some Lysol and we were off shortly thereafter.
Next stop was Nashville. I also spent much of this time sleeping. I did manage to finish Slaughterhouse-Five by Kurt Vonnegut during this leg of the trip. I wouldn't recommend anyone read a book about time travel while traveling on a trip you're sure to lose track of time on.
When we reached the Nashville bus station I encountered three Redskins fans. This was the most depressed three-some I'd ever seen, and "depressed" and "three-some" don't often find themselves in the same sentence. They were from Richmond, Virginia and took great pride in the franchise. It's amazing how a bad season can take the life out of some people, or at least compound the stress they're already living with.

We made three more stops in Tennessee, the most notable of which was a city called Manchester, population under 10 thousand. I was fully prepared to make fun of Manchester until I just saw they host the Bonnaroo Music Festival every year. This was their 2010 lineup. I stand corrected on the merits of Manchester, Tennessee.
"We only have one person getting off in Manchester, so we'll only be here for five minutes," the driver said. "If you steal from the store or buy alcohol, you will become a resident of Manchester, Tennessee."
Everyone laughed.
Two people weren't laughing six minutes later. The bus driver began to take off and a lone voice in the back shouted, "We still got two people in the store."
"They will now be residents of Manchester, Tennessee," the bus driver responded.
If it wasn't for a particularly difficult left turn, that required the driver to wait until a few cars passed, the two stragglers would have been stranded in Manchester, Tennessee, six months until Bonnaroo.
"Y'all owe we the name of your first born child," the lone voice said to the couple as they got back on.
I've now been in Marietta, fifteen miles outside of Atlanta, for two and a half days and have seen one article of Falcons clothing. I've also seen one article of Bulls clothing. This is why I couldn't live in a transplant town. No collective sports identity, excitement, or do-or-die attitude come playoff time. This is the city the NFC Championship will go through.
All this drama and the playoffs haven't even started yet. Much like our bus trip, we have no idea what we're in store for in a conference that is wide open.

Bears-Packers Should Never Be Played In Week 17

November 18, 2006. The Ohio State Buckeyes, ranked number one in the nation, host the number two Michigan Wolverines in the last game of the college football season. Each team enters the game with a perfect 11-0 record. What's at stake is simple: winner plays for the National Championship, and the loser accepts a trip to the Rose Bowl.
Ohio State comes out firing, leading Michigan 28-14 at halftime. Michigan would bounce back in the second half, outscoring Ohio State by eleven points. It wouldn't be enough however, as Ohio State secured a three point victory and went on lose to Florida in the 2007 BCS Championship Game.
This would have been a classic game regardless, but its importance was heightened because of the historical Ohio State-Michigan rivalry. An integral part of this rivalry is the timing -- they play each other the last game of the season every year. This game was dubbed "Game of the Century" for a reason, this match-up never carries the type of implications it did in 2006. A rivalry game played the last game of the season is great when it works out to perfection like it did in 2006. The problem of course, is that it rarely works out that way.
Now consider the Bears-Packers rivalry, the NFL equivalent to Ohio-State Michigan. This Sunday will mark the third time in the last ten years that the NFL rivals have squared off in the last game of the season.
I have just one simple request: don't play this game game in Week 17, ever again.
The last time the Bears and Packers played in Week 17 of the season was in 2006. The Bears were 13-2, had already clinched the number one seed in the NFC playoffs and played their back-ups the majority of the game. The Packers were 7-8, had already been eliminated from playoff contention, and were basically playing for pride. The Packers went on to win 26-7, and the Bears went on to the Super Bowl.
Two years earlier, the Bears and Packers also met in the last game of the season. The Bears' season was already over, as they were 5-10 coming into the game. The Packers were 9-6 and needed the win to hold off the Vikings for the NFC North crown. Not surprisingly, the Packers won in convincing fashion to advance to the playoffs.
The common denominator is that the 2004 and 2006 games didn't decide the fate of both teams. In that respect, the timing of the game was a failure.
Now let's jump to this year's offering, which could possibly mean much more than the previous two meetings. The playoff scenario is simple for the Packers: win and they're in. If they lose, they'll need both the Giants and Bucs to lose to get in.
The Bears' priorities are a little more tricky. They've already clinched at least the second seed in the NFC and a first round bye. There's a slim possibility that they still could secure the top seed. In order for that to happen, the Bears need to win and the Falcons need to lose at home to the 2-13 Carolina Panthers. A Falcons loss is not very likely, especially considering they could drop to the fifth seed if the Saints win at home against Tampa Bay.
Fortunately for the Bears, they'll know where they stand come game time. The Falcons play at 12:00 CT and the Bears game was moved to 3:15 CT. By the time the Bears kickoff, they will know whether it's possible to grab the one seed. If they can't, it's unclear how the Bears will plan on playing this game.
Lovie Smith and his players are saying all the right things:
"We can clinch home field advantage through out the playoffs."
"We have a chance to be the first undefeated team within the division."
"We want to be the one's to end our rival's season." 
It all sounds good, but what if the Bears are already locked into the two seed? Is "ending our rival's season" really a strong enough motivation to risk a key injury in a meaningless game? I would say no.
This is exactly why the second game of this rivalry should never be played on the last week of the season -- to avoid situations where it isn't beneficial for one of the teams to play their starters the entire game. Imagine if this game was played last week, or two weeks ago. Both teams would have everything in the world to play for and football fans could enjoy the best rivalry in the NFL the way it's meant to be played.
As it stands, the Bears will likely play their starters sparingly, if at all. This could have been avoided. Rivalries like the Bears-Packers are spirited regardless of which players are playing, but deserve the best players on the field. The NFL schedule-makers can't hope for a miracle like 2006 Ohio State-Michigan. They need to play it safe and make sure the last game is always played before Week 17.

Forecasting The NFC Playoffs

It's about that time again. With 62.5 percent of the NFL season complete, things are starting to fall into place. Minnesota and Dallas will both miss the playoffs and have fired their head coaches, Mike Vick not only is the Eagles' starting quarterback, but is putting together an MVP season, and Detroit is still Detroit, but at least they're not Carolina. Just like we drew it up from the beginning.
There's seven teams that deserve six playoff spots. Only five of those teams will actually make the playoffs. Damn you, NFC West. Here's the NFC playoff picture, as it currently stands.

LOCKS:

Atlanta Falcons (8-2), Projected Finish (13-3, NFC South Champs, #1 Seed)

Green Bay Packers (7-3), Projected Finish (11-5, NFC North Champs, #2 Seed)

New Orleans Saints (7-3), Projected Finish (10-6, NFC Wild Card, #5 Seed)

Whoever wins the NFC West, #4 Seed

Atlanta, Green Bay, and New Orleans are the only three teams I'm prepared to call locks for the playoffs. And of course, someone has to win the NFC West. Will that team be above .500? Probably not. Will a more deserving team, with a better record miss the playoffs because of the way the playoff system is designed? Yes. Does the playoff system need to be changed? Absolutely.
Atlanta is the cream of the NFC crop right now. Not only do they have the best record, but the easiest remaining schedule of the eight potential playoff teams. Next week's home game against Green Bay will be a great measuring stick for both teams, and Atlanta's Week 16 match up with New Orleans will be a golden opportunity for the Saints to cement their playoff spot. The tendency to embrace what is new has everyone falling in love with the Vick-McCoy-Jackson-Celek tandem, but I'm not so sure the more experienced Ryan-Turner-White-Gonzalez tandem isn't more primed for a playoff push.
The Packers could very easily have 8, 9, or even 10 wins at this point. They've lost all three of their games by a field goal, two of those losses coming in overtime. He won't win it, but for my money, Aaron Rodgers is the MVP of the league right now. His top target, tight end Jermichael Finley, and running back Ryan Grant were lost for the year, the offensive line has been shuffled around, and after hiccups against Washington and Miami, it appears the Packers have hit their stride. They'll be tested late in the year, next week at Atlanta, at New England in Week 15, and home games to close out the year against the Giants and Bears. The Packers have found their comfort zone and are settling in at just the right time.
There won't be a Super Bowl let down from the 2010 New Orleans Saints. They still have Drew Brees, meaning they won't have trouble scoring points. Their defense will be key to making the playoffs. New Orleans is currently 2nd in the NFL, allowing only 186 passing yards a game. They're giving up just over 100 yards on the ground per game. Drew Brees and the passing game will always be the focus, but the Saints will go as far as their defense takes them.

THE NFC EAST:

Philadelphia Eagles (7-3), Projected Finish (11-5, NFC East Champs, #3 Seed)

New York Giants (6-4), Projected Finish (9-7, 2nd in NFC East, Miss Playoffs)

I'm officially on the Eagles' bandwagon. Their offense is terrifying. They can beat you in so many ways, some of which we probably haven't even seen yet. Vick's health will be the key. He needs to do a better job of avoiding hits, or he'll be back on the sidelines, watching Kevin Kolb destroy the empire he was building. Next week at Chicago will be their biggest test of the season. Chicago can stop the run, but can they stop the run when Vick is the runner? Save for their rematch against the Giants, the Eagles will have plenty of defenses they can easily exploit in their remaining games.
The Giants are the biggest wild card in the NFC picture. Just three weeks ago they were the team to beat in all of the NFC, now they aren't even the favorite to win their division. The good news for Giants fans is that they have the ability, more so than any other team, of controlling their playoff fate. They've already beaten (dismantled might be a better word) the Bears, a major player in the Wild Card race. They have a home game against Philadelphia, and both games against the Redskins to gain leverage within their division. They also have a game left with Green Bay, which barring a Packer collapse, could also be Wild Card competition.

WHAT ARE THEY DOING HERE?:

Chicago Bears (7-3), Projected Finish (10-6, NFC Wild Card, #6 Seed)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3), Projected Finish (9-7, 3rd in NFC South, Miss Playoffs)

The black sheep of the NFC Playoff picture are clearly the Bears and Bucs. Both teams were expected to be closer to 3-7 at this point in the season, not the other way around. Neither team has looked pretty winning games, but they are winning. The Bears have the better defense, which is why I think they'll be able to stay in the playoff hunt. The key for the Bears is to avoid turnovers. They've had success in the past because they won the turnover battle. Cutler will have to take care of the ball better, especially against the Philadelphia's, Green Bay's, and New York's of the world if they're going to challenge for the last playoff spot.
Not only does Tampa Bay squeak out wins, but they also play in the same division as the Falcons and Saints, ensuring that they will always be overlooked. They have tough match ups remaining against both teams, at New Orleans and the Saints at home. They also have to go to Baltimore this upcoming weekend. All three of those games will be tough. Tampa Bay's Week 14-16 string of Washington on the road, Detroit, and Seattle will be huge. The Bucs have done a great job of stopping the pass this year, and those three teams rank 22nd, 31st, and 30th in rushing, respectively. It's not out of the question that Tampa Bay could finish 10-6 and grab a playoff spot, although I'm still not sold on quarterback Josh Freeman. I think he's still another year away.

SOMEONE'S GOTTA GRAB IT (NFC WEST):

Seattle Seahawks (5-5), Projected Finish (7-9, NFC West Champs, #4 Seed)

St. Louis Rams (4-6), Projected Finish (6-10, 2nd in NFC West, Miss Playoffs)

Yes, I think Seattle will be under .500 to finish the year. They will have a higher seed than two 10 win teams. I don't know what to say about these two teams other than it's wrong that they need to be in the playoff discussion. Here's what I'm hoping happens. The Rams win two of their next five, and the Seahawks win one of their next five. They meet each other in Week 17 of the season, both 6-9. The winner advances to the playoffs. They go scoreless in regulation and a first overtime before Roger Goodell says "Fuck It," let's toss up a coin, neither of you are beating the Saints anyway.  Seattle wins the coin toss and proceeds to lose by 35 at home to New Orleans.