Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Wisconsin In Need Of A Statement Tournament Win



Below are the overall records and number of Top 3 conference finishes in the last ten years of some of the high-profile coaches in college basketball. Their overall record is listed first, and number of Top 3 conference finishes in parentheses. Again, these numbers encompass the last ten years of each coach's career.

1) 294-64 (8)
2) 287-61 (10)
3) 287-73 (8)
4) 256-93 (6)
5) 242-90 (7)
6) 235-108 (5)

Now think about which coach matches which number. Surely, you guessed Coach K and Roy Williams at some point. Probably Bill Self, Tom Izzo, and maybe Jim Boeheim as well. Congratulations, you'd be correct. Chances are though, unless you're a college basketball savant, or follow the Big Ten closely, you didn't correctly guess number 5 on the list. That would be Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan, one of the most successful coaches of the last decade, but rarely mentioned in the same breathe as the other five.
It's easy to see why. Here's the same list, replaced by number of Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four, and Championship game appearances in the last ten years (2011 Sweet 16 appearances for Krzyzewski, Self, Williams, and Ryan were included).

1) Mike Krzyzewski - 6 Sweet 16s, 1 Final Four, 1 National Championship
2) Bill Self - 3 Sweet 16s, 2 Elite 8s, 1 National Championship
3) Roy Williams - 1 Sweet 16, 1 Elite 8, 2 Final Fours, 1 Runner-Up, 1 National Championship
4) Jim Boeheim - 3 Sweet 16s, 1 National Championship
5) Bo Ryan - 4 Sweet 16s, 1 Elite 8
6) Tom Izzo - 1 Sweet 16, 1 Elite 8, 2 Final Fours, 1 Runner-Up

Bo Ryan is as good of a regular season coach as there is in college basketball but his tournament resume pales in comparison to the above list of heavy hitters, which doesn't even include Thad Matta or Billy Donovan. My point is not to disparage Ryan, but to beg for a statement win.
Bo Ryan is the best thing to ever happen to Wisconsin hoops. Sure, Wisconsin won a National Championship (1941), and added a Final Four appearance (2000) before him, but those are two diamonds in a 78-year rough.
Ryan has been the model of consistency at Wisconsin, honing his system that won four Division III Championships at UW-Platteville. The Badgers qualified for the NCAA Tournament seven times in a 62-year period before Ryan's inaugural 2001-02 season. He has taken his team to the tournament in all ten years as Wisconsin head coach. The Badgers were never seeded higher than fifth before Ryan took over. They've been a four-seed or higher four times under him. Ryan's teams have also advanced to the Round of 32 in nine of their ten appearances.
Basically, pencil the Wisconsin Badgers into the second round of the tournament every year. 2011 is the year they have to take the next step.
I'm as realistic of a fan as any. Wisconsin never will be a Duke or North Carolina. They've successfully recruited one McDonald's All-American in school history and probably won't earn a commitment from another for the next ten years. Their roster is routinely composed of the best players from Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and three-star recruits from Illinois. They don't have the name recognition, facilities, history, or market to compete with the schools that hang banners every year.
With that in mind, Bo Ryan has done a wonderful job of developing and recruiting players for his swing offense. Every player needs to be able to pass, handle the ball, and hit outside shots -- including big men. Ryan has shown a knack for finding skilled bigs and hard-nosed defenders, most of which were passed over or neglected all together by bigger name programs.
Realistically, Wisconsin's ceiling is the Elite 8 with an experienced and talented Bo Ryan team. It's time to escape from reality. Ryan needs desperately to validate his program. The best coaches and teams carry over their regular season success to the NCAA tournament. Wisconsin has yet to do that.
Their 2005 Elite 8 run was a bit of a fluke. They earned a 6-seed and defeated 11th seeded Northern Iowa in the first round. Then due to a couple of upsets, drew 14-seed Bucknell in the 2nd round, and 10-seed North Carolina State in the Sweet 16. The two teams they avoided? The 23-8 UConn Huskies and the 23-7 Kansas Jayhawks.
A 2011 advancement to the Elite 8 will be much more impressive. Belmont finished the regular season with 30 wins and was probably one of the three or four best mid-majors in the tournament. Kansas St. was a Top 5 preseason pick that dismissed some key players early in the year but still finished the season with the core of their team together. Butler is a veteran team with five contributing players from last year's runner-up team.
There is no clear-cut favorite between Wisconsin, Butler, Florida, or BYU. If there was ever a chance for Bo Ryan to lead his team to a Final Four this is it. Wisconsin basketball needs this. But more importantly, Ryan's legacy needs this.
Deep tournament runs are the only thing that separates him from the other great coaches of this era. Well that, and I don't see Coach K cranking dat Soulja Boy anytime soon.

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