Monday, March 28, 2011

Jet Lag And Chest Passes

Back-to-back games are a constant source of contention every NBA season. Players hate them and fans use them as an excuse for poor play from their favorite team. Bulls fans and some players have openly questioned the amount of back-to-back games the team has played this season. It has certainly seemed like a lot, but how to the Bulls stack up compared to other teams?

The Bulls will play 22 back-to-back games this season, tied for second most with the 76ers, Clippers, Bobcats, Cavaliers, and Nets. Only the Bucks, with 23 back-to-back games on their schedule, will play more than these six teams.

Below is a table of all 30 NBA teams. The first column shows how many back-to-backs each team had played through Sunday, March 27th. The second column details the record of each team in the second leg of their back-to-back. And the third column points to the remaining number of back-to-backs for each team, and the total number of back-to-back games they will play this season in parentheses.

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Of course, simply looking at the wins versus losses in the second game of a back-to-back isn't the best indicator of how back-to-backs affect a team. Differences in shooting percentage, points scored, points surrendered, and minutes played from the first game to the second game would be a better determinant of a team's performance. Unfortunately, I didn't have the time to calculate all of those stats. We also have to keep in mind other factors such as home versus away games, travel distance, quality of opponent, if the opponent also played a game the day before, and a team's average age/depth in assessing just how impressive these records are. Those are questions for another day.

This table does however, prove valuable for a few reasons. Firstly, it appears that the schedule makes have been very kind to the preseason favorites. The Lakers play two less back-to-backs than the next closest team, and a staggering nine less than the Bucks. The Heat, Spurs, Thunder, Magic, and Celtics all play a low number of backs-to-backs. However, so do the Suns, Warriors, and Hornets; three teams that weren't expected to contend, so take that observation with a grain of salt. 

Then there's the teams that seemed to get the short end of the stick. The Bulls, Hawks, Grizzlies, Knicks, Pacers, Rockets, 76ers, Clippers, Bucks, Bobcats, Cavs, Nets, and Wizards all will play 21 or more back-to-backs. How many of these teams were considered preseason playoff locks? The Bulls, Hawks, and Bucks to my knowledge, and the Bucks probably won't make the playoffs this year. It seems like the preseason NBA heavyweights received the benefit of the doubt concerning back-to-back games this season.

Probably the most telling detail this table is that it reads like the NBA Power Rankings. Besides the 6-7 Celtics dwelling in the middle, the good teams are at the top, and bad teams at the bottom. Regardless of the circumstances listed above, the best teams take care of business in the second game of back-to-backs. The number is somewhat tainted because they play more back-to-backs than other elite teams, but the Bulls are in position to win more than any other team this year. Reaching for positives, maybe; but add this to the list of unexpected Bulls accomplishments this year.

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