But looking at that list, all of those things are possible, right? I've prided myself in remaining, or at least trying to remain rational throughout this season. The last thing I want to do is fall off the wagon now.
Either way, the tweet got me to thinking about the percent chance of each scenario occurring. These numbers are not based on any higher formula, just a simple high or low number used to signify likelihood.
Tom Thibodeau wins Coach of the Year --> 90 Percent. The COY trend is well known by now: give the award to the coach of the league's most improved team. Fresh off of two straight 41 win seasons and low playoff seeds, the Bulls are now in line to secure a Top 3 seed and a win total in the upper-50s. Most people expected the Bulls to improve, but not to the degree they have. A 4 seed and 50 wins seemed about right in preseason, and that was assuming the team would be healthy. Thibs has preached defense since day one and it shows. The Bulls are winning games on the defensive end.
Gregg Popovich is another candidate, but is often overlooked for the honor because the Spurs have been consistently good for so long. I'm not sure a 68 win season would even win him the award this year.
A wild card is first-year 76ers coach Doug Collins. Collins not only has Philadelphia in the playoff hunt, but challenging the Knicks for the sixth spot. In reality, the 76ers are probably the biggest surprise team of the NBA thus far. But a potential sixth seed doesn't compete with a possible one seed and legitimate Finals hopes.
Derrick Rose wins MVP --> 75 Percent. I've been going back and forth with this number. A few days ago I thought it was just right. Today, I feel it might be a little high. For the last month or so the MVP race seemed to be between D. Rose and LeBron. LeBron had the disadvantage of the whole Decision/playing with other superstars thing. Also, like the Spurs, he's so consistently good, we tend to overlook him. Rose seemed to be cast as the anti-LeBron and benefited from the misconception that Chicago would be a 20-win team without him.
But now Dwight Howard has entered the equation. If you're voting for the MVP based on numbers alone, then Howard deserves the award. Since the trade, he's averaging 25 points, 15 rebounds, and 2 blocks a game. All while shooting 61 percent from the field. Even "video-game numbers" would be an inappropriate way to describe that beautiful stat line. Not to mention, Howard has a bigger impact on the defensive end than any other NBA player and is the sole reason Orlando has been a Top 5 defensive team for so long.
That's great, but isn't the MVP a reflection of his team's success to an extent? Orlando is no slouch, they're 38-22. However, here's something I've found interesting. In almost every Boston, Miami, or Chicago playoff article I've read, the writer has mentioned how important it is for BOS/MIA/CHI to secure the one seed, so they don't have to meet up with either BOS/MIA/CHI in the second round. As if Orlando would be an easy out in round 2. They're being completely overlooked and that has to count for something. The MVP is a regular season award, and the MVP should be on an elite team. Even after the trades, no one is buying that Orlando is an elite team.
The Bulls are 5-3 against these teams, with a losing record only against Boston (1-2). They have the size to match up with Boston and LA, the athleticism to hang with Miami, and the defensive prowess to contain San Antonio. It would help though, if they could win this upcoming game against Miami, and secure at least one road win against an elite team.
Bulls earn the 1 Seed --> 15 percent. If the Bulls were to procure the number one seed in the East, they'd need two things to happen:
1) Boston to lose in Chicago and Miami, in addition to blowing a few "gimme" road games. The Celtics have the fifth highest road winning percentage in the NBA.
2) Miami needs to continue their futility against good teams and lose at least half of their next ten games.
Here's the breakdown:
CELTICS 43-15
12 of 24 remaining games against playoff teams
13 Road Games
@Chicago, @Miami
HEAT 43-17
13 of 22 remaining games against playoff teams
9 Road Games
vs. Chicago, vs. Boston
BULLS 41-17
12 of 24 remaining games against playoff teams
13 Road Games
@Miami, vs. Boston
The Heat have the most intriguing race to the 1 seed. Their next ten games are against playoff teams. They have a combined 6-6 record against those teams, plus two meetings with San Antonio, who they haven't played yet. This ten game stretch will make or break their chances of grabbing the top seed. They play 8 of these 10 games at home. If the Heat can come away with 7 or 8 wins in that stretch, they should set themselves up nicely for a push towards the one seed.
The Celtics currently hold a one game advantage over Miami, and two games over Chicago. While they have Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic to incorporate into the system, the core of their team has been together for the last four years. They're a veteran team and, I hate this cliche but, know what it takes to win.
Here's something else the Boston Celtics know: the Chicago Bulls are the only Eastern Conference team that can beat them in a seven game series. I believe wholeheartedly that they're terrified of facing the Bulls in the playoffs. That will be motivation enough to focus on the top spot and hope the Heat can knock the Bulls off. If they have to play the Bulls in the EC Finals, they do so knowing they have home court advantage against a team with limited postseason experience that has played poorly on the road this year.
The Celtics know this is probably their last stand. No way I see them loosening the reins and letting the one seed slip away.
I'm still concerned about the Bulls' propensity to lose on the road and play down to inferior competition. The good news is that they finally have their full team healthy. Perhaps having everyone back will instill a focus in them. Regardless, the Bulls are the dark horse to grab the one seed, and whether they do or not, will likely have the most momentum heading into the playoffs.
A few months from now, we'll have the answers to all of these questions. I'm 100 percent sure of that.
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