Day 10: Spurs-Grizzlies (Game 4)

I skipped Days 7-9 of the Daily NBA Blog because I visited my brother at college this weekend and didn't have time to write as a result. Who knew that simply stepping foot back on a college campus unleashed in me the three habits I'd since kicked so well: too much pizza, beer, and irregular sleep patterns. I still managed to catch large chunks, if not every game in its entirety and came away with a few thoughts that I forgot to write down. So much for that.

Maybe it was the Guinness, but Zach Randolph dancing to DJ Khaled's "All I Do Is Win," after Memphis notched a 91-88 win to take a 2-1 series lead over San Antonio, was the weekend's most memorable NBA moment. Why? Because of the improbability of the scene. If you would have told me before the playoffs that Chris Paul would hop in his time machine, single-handedly will his team to two victories over the best team in the NBA, and, in a matter of days, convince NBA observers that he was still the best point guard in the NBA, I would have believed you. If you would have told me that Brandon Roy would make four clutch shots IN A ROW, with the game on the line, to even up the series in Portland, I would have believed you. If you would have told me the Knicks would struggle, LeBron would miss a game winner, and Dwight Howard would put up 30 and 15 despite showing very little interest in the games, I would have believed all that too. But Randolph, dancing at midcourt, soaking in an adoring crowd's attention? Not for a second.

Zach Randolph is the type of athlete who hometown fans are skeptical of embracing (see: Portland, New York, LA). The fact of the matter is that Randolph as been a remarkably consistent model of productivity in his ten years in the league. He's long figured out the on court stuff (to an extent, but let's not get into that). His off-the-court behavior is what garners him the most attention and why, even after putting together his fourth 20-10 season in the last five years, he is not mentioned with the game's elite players. Why would Memphis fans, knowing Randolph is due for a screw-up, let their guard down and become emotionally invested in him? Here's one big reason:



After the game, the Spurs exited the floor, and Memphis fans stood and applauded Randolph as he danced, seemingly in slow motion, as he always does, to the beat of his own drum. He had signed a 4-year 71 million extension with the Grizzlies just days prior. Since coming to Memphis, Randolph has stayed out of trouble and played well. He deserved this moment, and I was happy for him and the Grizzlies franchise on their first home playoff win.

The Grizzlies and Pacers agreed upon a trade the day of the February 24th trade deadline that reportedly was going to send OJ Mayo to Indiana in exchange for Josh McRoberts and a 1st round pick. The trade was voided because it didn't meet the 3 PM deadline. Both sides tried to blame the other for the mix-up, but this fact remains: both teams, at least for their first round series', are better without the trade.

Mayo has been the most valuable player off a Memphis bench that has outplayed San Antonio's bench this series. Not only can he come off the bench and provide an offensive spark for the second unit like he did in Games 3 and 4, but can play major minutes if Memphis needs his three-point shooting, like they did in Game 1. McRoberts has been one of the centerpieces of Indiana's physical play. Along with Foster, he has come off the bench and not only offered hard fouls, but been aggressive on the boards. Both of these areas have given the Bulls trouble. If the Mayo-McRoberts trade goes through, I don't think either Indiana or Memphis is as successful in their respective series' as they have been up to this point.

Much of the talk after Game 4 centered around the end of the Spurs dynasty. First of all, the series isn't over. I don't think anyone would be surprised if San Antonio could mount a comeback. But even if they can pull off a miracle and advance, they're not beating Oklahoma City. All dynasties must crumble, but the Spurs have done so in such surprising fashion. They've compromised some of the defensive end and have preferred to rest Duncan more and try and outscore teams. Their biggest advantage during the regular season was their superior three-pointing shooting; tops in the league. Through the first two games in which they went 1-1, they shot 40.6 percent from behind the arc. Since then, 0-2 and 21.2 percent in Games 3 and 4.

Tim Duncan was routinely stripped when the Grizzlies doubled him. He also had a difficult time trying to pass out of the double team. Tony Parker played well, but his counterpart Mike Conley, as he has all series, kept up with him. Conley mid-range game was surprisingly effective and he only turned the ball over once. Spurs fans had been begging for Tiago Splitter to make an appearance and he finally did. Splitter provided a spark, hitting 5 of his 9 shots, but his production was negated by the collective effort of the Grizzlies' bench. Every player but one on Memphis' roster scored in Game 4. That stat says it all.

If this is in fact the end of the Spurs, then perhaps we should reflect on their remarkable regular season. Most teams gradually fade into obscurity, slowing dipping in the Playoff standings before missing the Playoffs all together and dismantling the roster. The Spurs finished one game off the NBA's best record and were 46-10 at the All-Star break. They weren't always the most entertaining team, but they always managed to surprise us in one way or another. 

San Antonio's 70 Win Pace

I usually don't start paying attention to the NBA standings until after the All-Star break. Playoff positioning is usually determined in the last two months, as teams either cement their standing or make a deal to try and move up. But what the Spurs are doing this regular season so far deserves special attention.
Now I knew the Spurs were rolling, obviously, but I wasn't aware of the waters they're currently treading. When the Western Conference standings scrolled across my TV screen a few nights ago and I saw: 1) San Antonio Spurs - 35-6 (the Spurs beat the Raptors yesterday and are now 36-6), I had to do a double take. 35-6!? I did some quick math. That's 41 games, the midway point of the NBA season. I did some more math. They're on pace for 70 wins. That's dangerously close to the 1996 Bulls' record setting 72 win season.
It's not like I pop bottles after the the last team loses their 11th game every year. In fact, I don't think about the record at all. I always kind of assumed it would never be broken. It takes a steady combination of luck, health, motivation, and talent to even approach 70 wins. It's rare to see these four factors working in unison in today's NBA.
Still, three teams in recent history have come close: The 2007 Mavericks (67 wins), 2008 Celtics (66 wins), and 2009 Cavaliers (66 wins). All three teams have two things in common:
1) The core of each team was in the primes of their career.
2) A huge motivating factor (I'll explain them next) occurred the year before. This factor inspired them so much that they returned the next year and took the league by storm.

2007 MAVERICKS   
Ages of Core Players: Dirk Nowitzki (28), Josh Howard (26), Jason Terry (29).
Motivating Factor: Up 2-0 in the 2006 NBA Finals, the Mavericks held a 13 point lead in Game 3 with just over 6 minutes left in the game. The Mavs were outplayed in the first half but had put together an excellent defensive 3rd quarter, outscoring the Heat 34-16 and took that momentum into the 4th. The Heat mounted a furious comeback behind Wade's 42 points (and 18 free throw attempts) to edge out the Mavs 98-96. It should be noted that Nowitzki had an opportunity to tie the game with one second on the clock, but missed his second free throw.
The Mavs went on to lose the next three games, completing one of the most epic collapses in NBA history. Motivated by how they went out the year before, the Mavs dominated regular season competition all year. But we all remember what happened next. They choked again. This time in the first round against 8th seeded Golden State. Can you think of a worse way to lose in two consecutive years?

2008 CELTICS
Ages of Core Players: Kevin Garnett (31), Paul Pierce (30), Ray Allen (32)
Motivating Factor: The Celtics had won 24 games the year before and had been slowly wasting the prime years of Pierce's career. Then Boston GM Danny Ainge got bold and dealt for veteran future Hall of Famers Garnett and Allen. Despite already decorated careers, neither of the three had won a Championship. Ainge's message was clear: Championship or bust.
The Celtics terrorized the league, starting the season 27-3. It was obvious that this team was taking nothing for granted and came to play every night. Add to that a weak division, and the Celtics were practically unbeatable in the regular season. At this time, Rajon Rondo was looked at as a possible liability.
Despite their struggles in the first two rounds, the Celtics went on to defeat the Lakers in the Finals and vindicate the careers of the Big Three.

2009 CAVALIERS
Age of Core Players: LeBron James (24), Mo Williams (26). Who was the third wheel on this team? Was there even a third wheel? I think that speaks to how good LeBron was playing.
Motivating Factor: Two year prior the Cavs (or should I say LeBron) made an improbable run to the NBA Finals. They capitalized off a weak Eastern Conference and the spectacular individual play of James. Their run was cut short by who else but the San Antonio Spurs in the Finals.
The following year, the Cavs were pitted against the newly formed Boston team in the second round. They lost but took Boston to seven games and looked like a team on the verge. The Celtics also showed signs of weakness that year, as they went 0-6 on the road in the first two rounds. The Cavs were poised to takeover the East, and LeBron -- the league.
The Cavs steamrolled through the first two rounds sweeping both Detroit and Atlanta. While LeBron averaged 38.5 points a game in the EC Finals, it wasn't enough to take down a Magic team that was firing on all cylinders and feeding off the confidence of defeating Boston the round before.

Now for a look at the Spurs. Here's what they've done in the regular season the last 10 years. Their playoff seed is in parentheses next to their win total.
2001 - 58 (1), Lost WC Finals
2002 - 58 (2), Lost in Semifinal
2003 - 60 (1), Won Championship
2004 - 57 (3), Lost in Semifinal
2005 - 59 (2), Won Championship
2006 - 63 (1), Lost in Semifinal
2007 - 58 (3), Won Championship
2008 - 56 (3), Lost in WC Finals
2009 - 54 (3), Lost in First Round
2010 - 50 (7), Lost in Semifinal

And here are some offseason playoff seed predictions for the Spurs:
Basketball-Reference - 3rd
CBSSports.com - 3rd
SI.com - 4th
ESPN.com - 5th
Sporting News - 8th

It's safe to say that no one expected the Spurs to perform the way they have up to this point. But why? Perhaps they set the bar too high . From 2000-08 they averaged 59 wins a season and won three Championships. The last two years they've averaged 52 wins (we're going to pretend like that's a bad thing) and were eliminated in the first round in 2008, and swept out of the second round in 2009. In other words, it appeared like the dynasty was about to crumble.
But let's not forget that in 2008 Ginobili missed half the season and the playoffs. In 2009, the Spurs struggled to incorporate Richard Jefferson into the offense and made an effort to get younger. Needless to say, it was going to take a year to adjust. But when you're an aging team and get swept by the uptempo Suns' offense, the easy explanation is that you are too old to contend anymore.
What intrigues me the most about the Spurs is they defy the two categories of a 70-win challenger I layed out earlier. Duncan (34) and Ginobili (33), while still effective players, are past their prime. They haven't made any huge additions, and no Tiago Splitter doesn't count. Not yet, at least. (Interesting sidenote: The sites that predicted the Spurs would finish in the Top 3 did so with the assumption that Splitter would be more of a contributor than he has been this year).
So what is their motivating factor? It has been three years since they were serious Championship contenders. I have three theories.
1) They've finally developed the chemistry with Jefferson and the younger players they expected last year. Duncan and Ginobili don't have to play as many minutes, which is a huge bonus.
2) We were so blinded by the Lakers and Thunder in the offseason that we forgot there were other teams in the West capable of making it to the Finals. Everyone (myself included) basically gave the West to the Lakers, and another, smaller contingent bought into the Scoring Title/Team USA hype surrounding Durant. Our obsessions with those teams probably led us to forget how good the Spurs have been and still are.
3) The Spurs want badly to beat the Lakers. The Lakers eliminated the Spurs from the 2001, 2002, 2004, and 2008 playoffs. That's four years out of a possible seven! The Spurs did get some revenge in 2003 when they defeated the Lakers in the Conference Semifinals en route to the Championship. There would be no better way than to take down the Lakers when everybody crowned them champs in the offseason and viewed the Spurs as an afterthought.
Or maybe the Spurs are just underappreciated and have been for the last decade? Yeah. I like that one the best.

Rudy Gay - The Most Interesting Man In The NBA

Remember back to the 2007-2008 NBA season. The Raptors were coming off their best regular season in franchise history. Chris Bosh was the face of the franchise and still relatively likable. Only one problem. Bosh was trailing Kevin Garnett massively in the All-Star vote. Garnett's stats weren't as good but he was playing his first year for the eventual NBA Champion Boston Celtics. The hype alone surrounding the Big 3 was enough to push Garnett into the starting lineup.
So Bosh dropped this video, which was then a pretty revolutionary marketing strategy. His votes skyrocketed but it was not enough to oust Garnett, or LeBron James for that matter, of a starting forward spot. Garnett ended up missing the game due to injury, and Bosh took his place in the starting lineup. The video worked (kind of), and Bosh earned his second consecutive All-Star start.
Memphis Grizzlies forward Rudy Gay recently put out a All-Star promotional video of his own, shown above. It parodies the Dos Equis commercials and is just as good if not better than Bosh's video two years ago. Only one problem. Gay, unlike Bosh two years earlier, doesn't deserve to be an All-Star. In fact, he's not even in the Top 10 vote-getters amongst forwards as of the last update on January 13th. It's not that he isn't a great player, but more due to the fact that he has names like Durant, Anthony, Gasol, Griffin, Duncan, and Nowitzki to compete with.
In that respect, it almost feels like a good video was wasted to fight a losing battle. Maybe next year. By then, Duncan and Nowitzki may be showing their age and Carmelo will be in the East.