Day 5: Nuggets-Thunder (Game 2)

The NBA regular season is a long, sometimes predictable grind. The good teams will almost always beat the bad teams. Guys won't be playing as hard as they do in the Playoffs, and JaVale McGee will make you wish he was on your team and then quickly rescind that wish in a span of two minutes. To break the monotony, NBA followers and writers alike latch on to the exciting and unpredictable. What will Blake Griffin do next? Can the Spurs keep up their pace after the All-Star break? Anything having to do with the Miami Heat. These were all intriguing questions/issues because there were so many different ways to tell each story. They were consistent NBA stories, made better because of the thought that the way we felt about them could change drastically at any moment.
Then there was the Thunder -- a team that had a spectacular year, but fell short of the preseason hype surrounding them. Oklahoma City pushed the Lakers to their limit in last year's first round, and Kevin Durant led Team USA to Gold over the Summer in the FIBA World Championship. The Thunder were supposed to challenge for the top seed in the West and Durant was supposed to be the runaway MVP. That would have been a great, somewhat predictable, but ultimately intriguing storyline. A young, gifted player joins the ranks of the game's elite. He takes his team from an 8 to a 1 seed in the matter of one year and wins the MVP while doing so. Sound familiar? That was Derrick Rose and the Bulls. Chicago had the season Oklahoma City was expected to have.

Perhaps the bar was set to high. The Thunder did improve after all. They went from a 50-32 8-seed, to a 55-27 4-seed. Here are Durant's numbers this year compared to last:

2010-11: 27.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.7 apg, 46% FG, 23.7 PER
2009-10: 30.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 47% FG, 26.2 PER

His numbers were slightly lower, but not enough of a drop off to become an MVP afterthought like he was this year. The Playoffs are the great equalizer. In an ever-alternating Western Conference, the race to the Finals is wide open. The Thunder were one of many well-written drafts this year. Now they're a favorite to become the story.

What is wrong with Wilson Chandler? Denver's tattooed and scruffy small forward has contributed next to nothing on the offensive end. He scored nine points on just 4-10 shooting in Game One, and added only four points without converting a field goal in Game Two. The problem runs far deeper than shot selection. Chandler has always taken bad shots -- he just normally makes more of them. Chasing around Kevin Durant thirty minutes a game seems to be getting to him. Chandler likes to take his man off the dribble, begin to drive, then inexplicably step back for a fade away 18-footer. His legs aren't there for that shot, and unfortunately for Denver, they need more offense out of him to win.

James Harden's beard (and Harden too!) went off for 18 points in Game Two. Harden has to be one of the most frustrating players to watch in the NBA. He has the skills to be great. He can shoot from anywhere in the building, take his man off the dribble, finish in traffic, and defend when he wants to. Yet, the 4th overall selection in 2009 has reveled in mediocrity up to this point. I realize this is only his second year, but you never know what you're going to get on a night-to-night basis. Charles Barkley made a great point (shocking, I know) about Harden. He stated that Harden would be starting now, but his head coach Scott Brooks wants to bring him off the bench to provide a spark, similar to how the Spurs used to use Manu Ginobili.

Harden provided that spark in Game Two, showcasing all of the talents that I wish he could lay out on his kitchen table and super glue together. If the Thunder are going to contend, they need a reliable third scorer to take the pressure off Durant and Westbrook. They can't be expected to combine for 65 every night, let alone the 72 they posted in Game One. Harden is the only Thunder player capable of playing the third wheel. It's going to be difficult for anyone to beat them if Harden can efficiently give them 16-18 a night.

The Nuggets have become a fan favorite after the Melo trade. They dealt their big name/distraction that didn't want to be there and became a better team. All while the Knicks made little to no improvement after supposedly receiving the prize of the transaction. But sure enough, the Nuggets miss Carmelo Anthony. Not for the entire game, but they miss Carmelo Anthony in crunch time.

The Nuggets were the highest scoring team in the NBA. After trading Melo, they were off to the races, literally. Their uptempo style ran teams out of the gym. The Nuggets have a remarkable EIGHT players that averaged double figures for them this year. But that's part of the problem. The new-look Nuggets have not been in many close games during the season, but in games decided by 8 points or less, including Game One, they are 3-6. 

The Nuggets right now are a bullpen filled with guys that can throw 95 mph with movement, but none of them have a defined role. We've seen the Closer-By-Committee fail countless times in baseball and Denver's basketball version is doing the same. They don't have anyone they can count on to win a game for them in the closing seconds. Playoff games, or at least 4 out of 7 in a series are typically close. The Nuggets' success was fun because of what they represented, but they could really use a player like the one they dealt away. 

Thoughts On Bulls-Knicks Three Point Shooting Contest

The Lakers and Celtics have undoubtedly the best rivalry in the NBA. Both franchises possess all the things that make a rivalry work: championships (32 combined), 10 NBA Finals match ups, and two diametrically opposed cities in terms of - well, pretty much everything.
The New York-Chicago rivalry operates under the recognition of sameness. Two large urban areas competing for big city basketball supremacy. The Knicks won two NBA titles in the early 1970s, while the Bulls as a team remained irrelevant until the late 1980s. It's no coincidence that both franchises were able to rise to power in the 1990s, when the Celtics and Lakers where in rebuilding mode. New York City and Chicago have always been recognized as epicenters of US culture and history. In the 1990s, the Bulls and Knicks fought for the same distinction in basketball.
That being said, all rivalries aren't created equal. The Bulls have won 128 of their 143 meetings, including 24 of their 36 playoff games. Yesterday's game was essentially meaningless in the grand scheme of the 2010-11 season, neither team is contending for a championship, but there's still remnants of the old rivalry sprinkled amongst both fan bases. This game was a big deal to a lot of people.
It's easy to blame this loss on the out-of-this world three point shooting, especially from unusual suspects Raymond Felton and Toney Douglas. The Knicks as a team shot 16-24 from behind the arc. While this is certainly an aberration, most of those were wide open looks. The majority of PG-SG-SFs in the NBA can knock down an open three. Blame the Bulls' half court defense and willingness to engage in an uptempo pace for this loss. We played right into what New York was trying to do, and turned the ball over 20 times to show for it.
Derrick Rose is currently second in the NBA in points per game with 26.8. Joakim Noah leads the NBA in rebounding, averaging 14.8 per game. It's nice to see them gain some recognition and sit atop some early statistical categories, but this picnic won't last forever. When Carlos Boozer returns, both Rose's points and Noah's rebounds will be cut down. Enjoy it while it lasts.

What's up with CJ Watson? I thought he was going to be one of the most underrated signings this offseason.  To quote myself, from a July 21st post:
While this move [Watson's acquisition] will surely go under the radar for sports fans outside of Chicago, it could end up to be one of the biggest moves the Bulls make this offseason. Before signing Watson, the Bulls lacked a guy who was capable of providing a huge spark off the bench. They now have that guy, as well as a player who can play major minutes at the point if Derrick Rose misses extended time like he did last season.
Embarrassing. Watson's jump shot looks awful, he's been sloppy with his passes, and has turned the ball over way more than a back up point guard should. He just doesn't look confident out there. It appears like he may have been a product of Golden State's offensive system. I hope not.
Amar'e Stoudemire had a very underwhelming stat line. 14 points on 5-21 shooting, 8 rebounds, and 8 turnovers. On the year, Stoudemire is averaging 19.5 points a game, shooting 39 percent from the field, 7.8 rebounds, and 6 turnovers a game. While the shooting percentage and turnovers are much worse than his career averages, Stoudemire doesn't look like he deserves the max contract he signed this summer.

In my opinion, a max contract guy should be the best player on your team AND a guy that you can win a championship with as the best player. That's why guys like Bosh, Joe Johnson, and Stoudemire are overpaid. If one of these three is the best player on a team, that team isn't contending for anything.
The only players that I think deserve max contracts (taking into account age, if I was giving out a long term max contract this offseason): LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, and Dwight Howard. I couldn't be convinced of anyone outside of these eight players.
I think I've found a player to compare to James Johnson's ceiling: Wilson Chandler. Both athletic small forwards who like to shoot the three. Neither play defense. Both are black holes once the balls is passed to them, opting to drive the lane rather than make the extra pass. Consequently, they both have poor shooting percentages. And that hair. Until JJ decided to change his hair style for the Knicks game, they had an identical "I'm not sure if I'm going to grow this fro out" look.