Last Thursday Ray Allen broke Reggie Miller's NBA record of 2,560 career three-pointers. Miller, who was announcing the game, was very congratulatory of Allen, even going as far as to pretend that he was happy his record had been broken. What interested me more was Miller's insinuation that Allen's record (2,562 and counting) would never be broken. According to Miller, the consistency and health that Allen continues to enjoy during his career will be tough to replicate.
It's hard to argue with that. Allen has been a great shooter for a long time, and he's managed to keep himself in fantastic shape into his mid-30s. But can we safely assume Allen's three-point record will never be broken?
First, it would help to understand a brief history of the three-point shot in the NBA. The NBA added the three-point line at the start of the 1979-80 season. The three-point line was already being used in college basketball and the ABA. Players were reluctant to utilize the shot at first. In fact, just under six three-point shots were attempted per game in the early going, less than Ray Allen alone attempts per contest.
In addition to the low number of attempts, shooters in the early 80s were not very effective. The best three-point shooters made around 35 percent of their shots, while the average players shot in the mid-20 percent range.
In the late 80s, Larry Bird became the first superstar to successfully incorporate the three-point shot into his arsenal, and three-point specialists started to emerge across the league. By the time the 1990s hit, the three-point shot was not only accepted way of scoring, but a shot that players were good at, and coaches attempted to utilize in their game plans.
The important thing to remember is that the three-point shot is still a relatively new "phenomenon." While it is commonplace in today's game, it didn't used to be. There's a reason why, by the end of the season, 8 of the top 10 three-point leaders will be current players. Players have grown up practicing the three ball, they're encouraged to shoot it, and are better able to knock it down than the NBA players of the 1980s.
Barring a drastic, league-wide shift in philosophy, there's no reason to believe that the three-point shot won't continue to grow in popularity over the years.
I made a chart of the current top 10 career three-point shooting leaders, and decided to differentiate them based on four different categories: "Durable Seasons," Three-Point Attempts Per Year (Career), Three-Point Attempts Per Game (Career), and Three-Point Shooting Percentage (Career).
I defined a "durable season" as one in which a player participated in at least 70 of the 82 games. In the 1998-99 strike shortened year, I adjusted the number to 42 of the 50 games. The number that appears first is the number of seasons a player met the 70 or 42 game requirement. The number in parentheses is the total number of seasons the player has completed. The difference in the two numbers are the seasons I determined to be affected by injuries.
Note also, that for the current players on this list, I did not include their numbers from the 2010-11 season in factoring any of the four categories.
Look at this chart and what jumps out? It's certainly not Allen's shooting percentage or health, the two factors that Miller and seemingly everyone else have deemed as the key to Allen's success. Ray Allen just flat out attempts more threes than anyone else, and it's not even close. That's not to diminish his health or shooting ability. He's obviously been better and luckier than most when it comes to those factors. But compared the rest of the top 10, he's 4th in career three-point shooting percentage. Reggie Miller managed to stay healthier over a longer period of time, and Chauncey Billups, Rashard Lewis, and Jason Terry are all on pace to at least equal Allen's string of good health. Allen shoots more--that is why he has made more.
There's a few interesting "what-ifs" on this list. We have to start with Dale Ellis. He shot the best percentage (40.3) of anyone on the list. He also appears to be an unfortunate victim of his era. Ellis attempted an average of 160 less three-pointers per year than Allen, and an average of 105 less than the four players ahead of him (Peja overtook Ellis after I finished the table). Ellis also remained healthy over a long career. Had he come a decade later, he'd at the very least have a firm hold of 3rd place, and possibly would still be ahead of Reggie. Instead, Ellis will likely in 10th place once Lewis, Terry, Billups, Paul Pierce, and Steve Nash retire. Within ten years he'll probably be buried within this list. Kind of a shame.
Look at Reggie Miller's numbers across the board. Now look at Jason Terry's. They're practically identical. The only major difference is that Terry is still seven years off from playing the 18 years that Miller did. Attempts per game and attempts per season are eerily similar, although Miller's shooting percentage is a point and a half higher. It's a very real possibility that Terry could catch Miller. Terry benefited from missing the 1998-99, entering the league a year later. So he could lose a portion two years to injury and still stay on pace with Reggie. Miller played until he was 40, reduced to a spot up shooter for the last three years of his career. If Terry is capable of filling a similar role in his later years, he has a good shot of cracking the top two or three.
Peja Stojakovic is probably the greatest what-if of them all. He's played the least amount of healthy seasons of anyone on the list, yet is still in 4th place. He has the second highest shooting percentage and attempts per game. Peja simply couldn't stay healthy. Things have gotten so bad, that it's unclear if he will even play next year. What if Peja had stayed healthy? What if he had jumped to the NBA when he was drafted in 1996 instead of waiting until 1998? We could have been treated to two extra seasons. Those two alone would have him currently in third place with well over 2,000 career threes. Instead, he'll be at the bottom of the top 10 within four years and, along with Ellis, will eventually be usurped by the future generation.
While the accomplishments of Ray Allen shouldn't be diminished, he's been fortunate to play within offensive systems that take advantage of his ability and encourage him to shoot. Allen has also come along at the right time, during an era where three-point shooting is developed at a young age and valued in the NBA. While he hasn't shot the best percentage or been injury-free, he has attempted more threes than anyone with a similar career shooting percentage and games played, accounting for his growing lead. However, with the increase of three-point shooting and advancements in medicine, it wouldn't be surprising to see the new generation of shooters rewrite this list. As early as five years ago, the top 10 looked drastically different.
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