Thursday, February 17, 2011

The Case For Keith Bogans

Bulls fans are spoiled. As if six championships in the 90s and watching the greatest player ever wasn't enough, all I've been hearing for the last three months is the Bulls need to upgrade the shooting guard position. As if a 37-16 record without a full roster, and one game left before the All-Star break wasn't enough. We need to get better! And the only way is to get another shooting guard, anyone except Bogans. Rip Hamilton, Stephen Jackson, JR Smith, Arron Afflalo, Anthony Parker, Courtney Lee, OJ Mayo--ANYONE.
Derrick Rose can't just be considered one of the best point guards in the game, he has to be considered the best. Derrick Rose can't just be an MVP candidate, he has to be the MVP favorite. The Bulls can't just have one All-Star, they need at least two.
More. More More. Nothing has been good enough this year, has it Bulls fans?
I understand that the last 12 seasons have been tortuous, mixed with a little good here and there. It was fun watching Elton Brand compete with some pitiful Bulls teams early in his career. The 2007 playoffs in which we swept the defending champion Heat in the first round, and battled back from a 3-0 series deficit to take the Pistons to six was memorable, and left many of us foolishly thinking the Bulls had turned the corner. The 2009 first round series with Boston was quite possibly the greatest playoff series ever and best Chicago Bulls moment of the last 12 years--even though we didn't win that series.
I also understand the Miami Heat have created an "arms-race" mentality in the NBA. Three big names teamed up in Miami and the same will probably happen in New York. The Celtics already have their Big Three, now Big Four. Conventional thinking then says that in order to keep up with these teams, you need to stockpile the biggest names and most talent. This line of thinking is true to an extent, but disregards the issue of chemistry and a player's willingness to adapt to a certain role.
That's why I'll take Keith Bogans over any of the players I just mentioned above. He plays great defense and is rarely caught out of position. He's never once tried to do too much on the offensive or defensive end. Ask yourself if any of the above players be content with six shots a game? I doubt it, and that's twice the amount of shots Bogans takes per game. I'd rather not deny Rose the ball if it means the shooting guard replacement needs more shots.
The biggest critique of Bogans is that he doesn't score enough. On the surface, it's hard to argue with that. He averages 3.9 points per game. But lets look at this scoring "conundrum" a little closer.
With Noah back, the Bulls will average about 80 points per game from their starters, tied for the fourth highest total in the NBA. The only teams higher are the Knicks (85), Warriors (82), and Heat (81). The Knicks and Warriors push the ball up the court, take quick shots, and play very little defense. They also have thin benches. Their teams philosophies are perfectly suited to scoring a lot of points. I know, they're a combined 3-1 against the Bulls, but neither are championship contenders and wouldn't beat the Bulls in a seven game series. The Heat have the two best players in the NBA, who combine for 52 of those 81 points. In comparison, the Bulls' top two scorers, Rose and Boozer, combine for 44.
Hopefully, my point about Bulls fans being spoiled is starting to get clearer. How many points do they expect the starters to score? The fans seem to think we should be able to add a 12-14 point per game scorer to the starting lineup. If we did that, we'd not only have a starting lineup that averages more than 90 points per game, but outscores the 2nd highest scoring lineup by 7 or 8 points a game.
The average NBA team gets 70 points per game out of their starting lineup. The Bulls get 80, but the fans want over 90. Ludicrous!
Let's also acknowledge that Bogans has been shooting the ball much better of late. In the first 31 games of the season, he shot 37 percent from behind the arc, in line with his career average. In the last 22 games, he's shot the three-pointer at a 47 percent clip. How about the a happy medium, 42 percent? I think that's more than doable, considering nearly every Bogans three pointer is uncontested. He's seeing more wide open looks than he ever has in his career. A five percent increase from his career three-point shooting percentage isn't out of the question.
72 percent of Bogans' field goal attempts are threes, a number that I'd like to see closer to 80. He only attempts 2.5 shots per game, so the lack of scoring isn't his fault. There's simply not enough shots to go around, which is why it would be ridiculous to think a starting lineup could average over 90 points a game. If Bogans took even six shots a game, he'd be averaging 6 or 7 points, a number that is well in line with most fourth or fifth options. There's always going to be an odd man out and Bogans is that man. Why he's being criticized for it, I have no idea.
The Bulls have never won or lost a game because of Keith Bogans. They won't win or lose a game because of his potential replacement. We're good enough to contend with the team we have right now. It's been 12 rough years for God's sake. Stop trying to act spoiled now.

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