Friday, October 22, 2010

Bears, Badgers Face Must Win Games This Weekend

Ah, the age old question. What constitutes a must-win game? I've heard many definitions over the years and decided to narrow them down to five.
1) The Literal - This is the "win or go home" game, exactly what the Phillies were facing yesterday. Some people argue this is the only true must win game, and in a sense, they're right.
2) The Rivalry - A game between two bitter rivals that involves one really good team and one really bad team. The good team has to win not only because it's a rivalry game, but their fans will never hear the end of it. When a team is bad, the only way they can salvage their season is by beating a superior rival.
3) The Save-Face - This is the type of must win the Vikings and Cowboys played last week. Two supremely talented teams that have underachieved thus far. While they've already killed their playoff chances, they have to win to at least make it look like they haven't given up on the season.
4) The Playoff Positioning - This happens a lot in baseball. Two division foes face off in a three game series at the end of August. They're separated by only one game atop the division and this is the last time they'll play each other this season. They have to win to improve their chances of making the playoffs.
5) The Expectation Fulfillment - A game that isn't considered a must win at the time, but will be reflected upon at the end of the season when analyzing whether or not a team lived up to expectations. This is the game the Bears and Badgers will be playing this weekend.
I feel like I've mentioned the Bears' post-Bye week schedule at every opportunity I've had, and hate to keep harping on it, but I can't really avoid it. I have a pocket schedule (printed in Spanish) that sits on my desk next to the computer. While I've been reminded of how to say Sunday, Monday, and Thursday in Spanish, I'm also constantly reminded of how difficult the Bears schedule is starting November 14th. 
That Seattle loss killed them. That was a game that they should have won that they didn't, and now they're going to have to win a more difficult game later in the season.
Ten wins will be enough to make the playoffs, maybe even nine. The Bears could and should have earned seven of those wins after Week 9. 4-2 still isn't a bad position to be in, neither will 5-2, but 4-3, with their upcoming schedule, diminishes their playoff chances.
The Bears need a win and they need to protect their quarterback. If they can't do either, that 4-1 record, possible sleeper status, and increased expectations will be all for naught. I almost forgot I predicted this team to win five games this year.
The Badgers are coming off one of their biggest wins in team history. That's a good and a bad thing. The Ohio State win brought back some of the national attention that disappeared after the loss at Michigan State. The bad news is that this is a really good Iowa team, and it's not at all uncommon for a team, especially the Badgers, to have a letdown the week after a big win.
Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City is one of the most difficult stadiums to play at that nobody talks about. I vividly remember the last time the Badgers played there and it wasn't pretty. The year was 2008 and Shonn Greene ran for 217 yards and 4 touchdowns. That was the official "My team sucks this year" game of the 2008 season.
Both teams have one loss and are looking for a spot in the Rose Bowl. Iowa still has the tougher part of their schedule to go, with home match ups against Michigan State and Ohio State. The loser heads to the Outback Bowl, the winner lives to fight another day.
Iowa has won three of the last five match ups against Wisconsin. Wisconsin's two wins were by a combined margin of seven points. The first Wisconsin home game I ever attended was a 20-10 Iowa victory in the rain. This is a nice, competitive, mini-rivalry that's been going on for the past five years and I don't see any reason why this game should be any different.
Expectations are constantly modified. After a 3-0 start, the Bears were expected to make the playoffs. While any sane person shouldn't expect them to advance very far, it's more than reasonable to expect them to earn a playoff spot.
Any time Wisconsin is ranked in the Preseason Coach's Poll, the hope is that they can earn their first spot in the Rose Bowl since 1999. They're probably never going to compete for a National Championship, so the Rose Bowl is the ultimate goal.
This is a weekend of must win games. No wins? No playoffs. No Rose Bowl. No dice.

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