Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Thoughts On Bears-Packers MNF Game

In hindsight, this game didn't teach us much of anything. Both teams can't run the ball (we knew that). Rodgers makes better decisions than Cutler (ditto). Lovie Smith and Mike McCarthy are terrible about managing the clock/using challenges. And penalties, especially committed in excess, can cost you a game. Who knew!
If we did learn one thing it's that everyone's favorite preseason Super Bowl pick has quite a few issues:
1) The First Obvious Issue: no viable option at running back behind Ryan Grant. Fullback John Kuhn (6 carries) split time with Grant's back up Brandon Jackson (7 carries). They combined for a whopping 43 yards.
2) The Second Obvious Issue: OK, 18 penalties is an aberration. But it does make for cool stats like, the Packers had more penalties than rushing attempts. They won't commit 18 or probably anywhere near that many penalties again this year, but the penalties only mask bigger issues.
Everything I've read has said the Packers beat themselves. It's the cliche thing to say when a team commits a ton of penalties and loses a close game. I'm also guilty of uttering that very sentence. But there's a difference in penalties. Penalties like roughing the quarterback and late hits are stupid penalties that would fall under the "beating yourself category."
While the Packers had their fair share of those, the majority of their penalties were pass interference and either holding or false start calls. Those pass interference calls weren't bail outs. The Bears receivers were just too fast. The Packers secondary has thrived over the years by being physical with teams at the line of scrimmage, and it's hard to be physical with a guy when he's running right by you with 4.4 speed. Woodson and Co. couldn't keep up so they had to result to grabbing their man all game.
On the same note, it was amazing to see how terrified the Packers O-Line was of Peppers. The Bears moved Peppers to both the left and right side, and he created havoc from both sides all game. At least five or six of those penalties from the O-Line were the result of either holding Peppers or false starts because they were worried about his pass rush.
While his impact hasn't shown up in the stat books, Peppers has been as impressive as any Bear this year. Just by suiting up he gives this defense an entirely new dimension. He was in the Packer's heads after the first series.
3) When their fantastic linebackers are neutralized by either forcing them to cover a tight end, or picked up while blitzing, this defense gets exposed. The Bears did a pretty good job of handling the defensive line and did an excellent job of neutralizing their linebackers. The Packers depend on their linebackers to provide pressure. If they don't, the corners are left out to dry, and that's not a good thing for this weak secondary.
The Bears aren't without their own issues. Jay Cutler was their leading rusher with 37 yards. The rest of the Bears combined for 40 yards. It's no secret that the Bears are going to rely heavily on the pass this year. 56 percent of the Bears plays were through the air, and if they had the ball longer, that number would have probably been up in the 60s. It's going to be tough to win consistently if Forte can't muster anything with about 20 carries a game.  
Here's something interesting to consider. If you had the choice of one linebacking core for just this year, would you choose the Bears or Packers? The Packers trio obviously have the youth on their side, but I'm not going to be the one that bets against a rejuvenated Urlacher and Briggs (who I still think is the most underrated defensive player in the league despite being selected to the last five Pro Bowls).
Urlacher and Briggs' joint effort to wrap up James Jones and force the ball out, which eventually led to the game winning field goal, was a thing of beauty. Fantastic individual efforts by the both of them. Yeah, this year, I'm choosing them.
By the way, that's why I love football. James Jones, who up until that fumble had four quiet catches for 43 yards, ended up costing his team the game. Jones was lucky the penalty total was so high or his head would be on a platter.
Two last thoughts. With the increased popularity of fantasy sports, there's three plays that every fantasy owner hates. From least painful to most:
3) Fantasy Baseball - an intentional walk. Increases the WHIP, usually just adds to a high WHIP inning.
2) Fantasy Basketball - a half court shot at the end of the quarter. Half the time a player just half asses a quarterback like throw and it decreases shooting percentage just like a missed mid range jumper.
1) Fantasy Football - a last minute heave from a quarterback that ends in an interception, resulting in minus one point. I'm watching Urlacher just trying to knock Rodgers' hail mary down and see Briggs pick off the deflection at the end of the half and can't help but laugh.
I was reading Twitter Monday morning, which I've been doing way too much of lately, and Jerry Azumah said that he had a dream that Hester would return one in tonight's game. I usually don't take what Azumah says seriously because he kind of comes off like a 35 year old who used to be in a cool frat and still thinks he's a part of it even though he graduated 15 years ago. Anyway, for some reason, I had this weird feeling that Azumah might be right about this one.
Had Hester avoided the punter he would have returned one earlier and I thought that was the best chance he'd have.
When he took the third punt to the house I couldn't believe it. That coupled with the bend but don't break defense and inept offense, and it felt like the glory days of 2006.
Maybe we did learn one more thing from this game: when the Bears and Packers play, throw everything you know out the window. How's that for cliche.

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