Day 13: Blazers-Mavericks (Game 6)

The first round of the NBA Playoffs is finally over and consequently, so is my Daily NBA Blog series. I know what you're thinking: "Who cares? I didn't really read any of them anyway, well, maybe the Bulls ones, and I skimmed over a few points in the others. I figured you'd be regurgitating the same old, tired story lines and didn't really feel like rereading them from a less reputable source."

Well, imaginary reader, you're not entirely wrong. But why such harsh judgement? Just because I've been known to come up short a time or two hundred doesn't mean I can't trump history and come through in the clutch. With the Dallas Mavericks as my witness, I'm asserting myself and shattering the preconceived notions that define me.

The Blazers were the popular upset pick (I picked them in six!) in the first round. Portland seemed to have put it all together, fully incorporating Gerald Wallace into their plans. They also put the clamps on Dallas in the last week of the season. Add to the equation Dallas' fair reputation as Playoff choke-artists and the ingredients for an upset seemed to be layed out in a straight line on the kitchen counter.

The most fascinating thing about this series is that, save for the last five minutes of Game 6, it went according to "plan." Dallas and Portland each took their first two home games. Dallas started Game 5 sluggish, slowly recovered, and blew Portland out in the second half. It was the type of "false-confidence" game Dallas has so willfully provided over the last five years. Just when you think they're destined for something great, they uphold your expectations and drop them at the pace of a JJ Barea floater.

Let's head to the the 44 second mark of the third quarter in Game 6. Jason Terry hits a long jumper to put the Mavericks up 75-58, the largest lead they would have all game. All the better. They have built up a lead perfectly suited to make Dallas fans think they're in control, and just close enough to make NBA fans feel like the Mavs can fuck this up. Portland follows with a LaMarcus Aldridge layup and two Gerald Wallace free throws to close out the quarter. 75-62. The seeds of a collapse have been planted.

The fourth quarter also begins according to "plan." Portland gets off to a 9-2 run and Dallas' 17-point lead from four minutes ago has suddenly dwindled to six with just under ten minutes remaining. Then Dirk Nowitzki happened. Dallas starts pounding the ball in the post to Nowitzki and he makes three straight shots, including his patented, one-legged fadeaway that I can't even convert regularly on my mini-hoop. Aldridge matched Nowitzki's brilliance and the game seemed to be heading towards a battle of bests. Give the ball to your best player, get the hell out of the way, and hope he can outscore the other team's best player.

A Gerald Wallace dunk with five and a half minutes left put the Blazers within one. The Blazers seemed poised to take over the game but didn't convert a field goal attempt for five minutes. The Mavericks inexplicably went away from Nowitzki but Terry, Marion, and Kidd put Portland away with a number of clutch shots of their own.  Nowitzki closed the game out with eight straight free throws.

Portland's future of contending for a Championship rests on Greg Oden's knees; not an enviable position. Meanwhile, Dallas reversed the choke narrative that had been written for them and we can finally see the Kobe-Dirk match up that somehow has alluded us all these years. With the NBA as their witness, the Dallas Mavericks asserted themselves and broke from the preconceived notions that defined them. But can they do it again? And again, and again....

Since it went so well the first time (semi-sarcasm) here are my second round picks:

EAST

(1) Bulls vs. (5) Hawks ---> Bulls in 5

(2) Heat vs. (3) Celtics ---> Heat in 7

WEST

(8) Grizzlies vs. (4) Thunder --->  Thunder in 6

(2) Lakers vs. (3) Mavericks ---> Lakers in 6  

Shout out to the Grizzlies, whose Game 6 victory I only caught parts of. Hence, I won't be writing about it. Zach Randolph is the best story of the Playoffs so far.

Reigning Threes?

Last Thursday Ray Allen broke Reggie Miller's NBA record of 2,560 career three-pointers. Miller, who was announcing the game, was very congratulatory of Allen, even going as far as to pretend that he was happy his record had been broken. What interested me more was Miller's insinuation that Allen's record (2,562 and counting) would never be broken. According to Miller, the consistency and health that Allen continues to enjoy during his career will be tough to replicate.

It's hard to argue with that. Allen has been a great shooter for a long time, and he's managed to keep himself in fantastic shape into his mid-30s. But can we safely assume Allen's three-point record will never be broken?

First, it would help to understand a brief history of the three-point shot in the NBA. The NBA added the three-point line at the start of the 1979-80 season. The three-point line was already being used in college basketball and the ABA. Players were reluctant to utilize the shot at first. In fact, just under six three-point shots were attempted per game in the early going, less than Ray Allen alone attempts per contest. 

In addition to the low number of attempts, shooters in the early 80s were not very effective. The best three-point shooters made around 35 percent of their shots, while the average players shot in the mid-20 percent range.

In the late 80s, Larry Bird became the first superstar to successfully incorporate the three-point shot into his arsenal, and three-point specialists started to emerge across the league. By the time the 1990s hit, the three-point shot was not only accepted way of scoring, but a shot that players were good at, and coaches attempted to utilize in their game plans.

The important thing to remember is that the three-point shot is still a relatively new "phenomenon." While it is commonplace in today's game, it didn't used to be. There's a reason why, by the end of the season, 8 of the top 10 three-point leaders will be current players. Players have grown up practicing the three ball, they're encouraged to shoot it, and are better able to knock it down than the NBA players of the 1980s.

Barring a drastic, league-wide shift in philosophy, there's no reason to believe that the three-point shot won't continue to grow in popularity over the years.

I made a chart of the current top 10 career three-point shooting leaders, and decided to differentiate them based on four different categories: "Durable Seasons," Three-Point Attempts Per Year (Career), Three-Point Attempts Per Game (Career), and Three-Point Shooting Percentage (Career).

I defined a "durable season" as one in which a player participated in at least 70 of the 82 games. In the 1998-99 strike shortened year, I adjusted the number to 42 of the 50 games. The number that appears first is the number of seasons a player met the 70 or 42 game requirement. The number in parentheses is the total number of seasons the player has completed. The difference in the two numbers are the seasons I determined to be affected by injuries. 

Note also, that for the current players on this list, I did not include their numbers from the 2010-11 season in factoring any of the four categories.



Look at this chart and what jumps out? It's certainly not Allen's shooting percentage or health, the two factors that Miller and seemingly everyone else have deemed as the key to Allen's success. Ray Allen just flat out attempts more threes than anyone else, and it's not even close. That's not to diminish his health or shooting ability. He's obviously been better and luckier than most when it comes to those factors. But compared the rest of the top 10, he's 4th in career three-point shooting percentage. Reggie Miller managed to stay healthier over a longer period of time, and Chauncey Billups, Rashard Lewis, and Jason Terry are all on pace to at least equal Allen's string of good health. Allen shoots more--that is why he has made more.

There's a few interesting "what-ifs" on this list. We have to start with Dale Ellis. He shot the best percentage (40.3) of anyone on the list. He also appears to be an unfortunate victim of his era. Ellis attempted an average of 160 less three-pointers per year than Allen, and an average of 105 less than the four players ahead of him (Peja overtook Ellis after I finished the table). Ellis also remained healthy over a long career. Had he come a decade later, he'd at the very least have a firm hold of 3rd place, and possibly would still be ahead of Reggie. Instead, Ellis will likely in 10th place once Lewis, Terry, Billups, Paul Pierce, and Steve Nash retire. Within ten years he'll probably be buried within this list. Kind of a shame.

Look at Reggie Miller's numbers across the board. Now look at Jason Terry's. They're practically identical. The only major difference is that Terry is still seven years off from playing the 18 years that Miller did. Attempts per game and attempts per season are eerily similar, although Miller's shooting percentage is a point and a half higher. It's a very real possibility that Terry could catch Miller. Terry benefited from missing the 1998-99, entering the league a year later. So he could lose a portion two years to injury and still stay on pace with Reggie. Miller played until he was 40, reduced to a spot up shooter for the last three years of his career. If Terry is capable of filling a similar role in his later years, he has a good shot of cracking the top two or three.

Peja Stojakovic is probably the greatest what-if of them all. He's played the least amount of healthy seasons of anyone on the list, yet is still in 4th place. He has the second highest shooting percentage and attempts per game. Peja simply couldn't stay healthy. Things have gotten so bad, that it's unclear if he will even play next year. What if Peja had stayed healthy? What if he had jumped to the NBA when he was drafted in 1996 instead of waiting until 1998? We could have been treated to two extra seasons. Those two alone would have him currently in third place with well over 2,000 career threes. Instead, he'll be at the bottom of the top 10 within four years and, along with Ellis, will eventually be usurped by the future generation.  

While the accomplishments of Ray Allen shouldn't be diminished, he's been fortunate to play within offensive systems that take advantage of his ability and encourage him to shoot. Allen has also come along at the right time, during an era where three-point shooting is developed at a young age and valued in the NBA. While he hasn't shot the best percentage or been injury-free, he has attempted more threes than anyone with a similar career shooting percentage and games played, accounting for his growing lead. However, with the increase of three-point shooting and advancements in medicine, it wouldn't be surprising to see the new generation of shooters rewrite this list. As early as five years ago, the top 10 looked drastically different.

An Unlikely Luc Longley Sighting

Last weekend I found myself in a retro bowling alley. Everything, and I mean everything, from the bowling balls, to the bar, to the employees, were aged at least sixty years. The left corner of the alley was doused with a touch of modernity in the form of fifteen year-old pinball machines. My favorite of which was NBA Fastbreak, a ditty from 1997, featuring Nick Van Exel, Clyde Drexler, Luc Longley, Jerry Stackhouse, Penny Hardaway, Jason Kidd, and Detlef Schrempf. One of these things is not like the others.
To recap: by 1997 standards, we have one future Hall of Famer (Drexler), two perennial All-Stars (Van Exel and Schrempf), two up and coming superstars (Kidd and Stackhouse), and Nike's latest prodigal son (Hardaway). Then there's the lonely Aussie, who looks to be playing help defense on Drexler, and primed to end up on a poster.
Before I get to Longley, I feel that Van Exel, Stackhouse, and Schrempf aren't nearly talked about enough for the right reasons. Van Exel doesn't receive enough credit for dispelling the myth that left-handers were incapable of playing the point guard position. Don't remember that myth? Just take my word for it, the 1990s were filled with some truly reprehensible people. As far as I'm concerned, without the trailblazing efforts of Van Exel and Derrick Coleman, players like Brandon Jennings and Josh Smith wouldn't exist.
In the mid-90s, Stackhouse was dubbed as the next MJ. Sure, he flew through the air like young Jordan, and attended North Carolina, but the similarities pretty much ended there. Stackhouse provided plenty of highlight reel dunks during his first two years in a 76ers uniform. All pale in comparison to the two-piece he hit Jeff Hornacek with during a game his rookie year.
I hated Jeff Hornacek as a kid. Him and Stockton made up the dirtiest backcourt I've seen to this day, except nobody acknowledged this at the time because they wore bowl cuts and didn't have tattoos. The Bulls played the Jazz in two straight Finals, so the nuances of that Utah team got on my nerves. Especially the way Hornacek used to rub his cheek before attempting every free show. The gesture was dedicated to his wife and kids, to show that he was still thinking of them. Spare me. For some reason, this makes me even angrier now than it did then.
Even if Stackhouse's punches appear unprovoked, I feel pretty comfortable with my belief that they certainly were not. My opinion of Hornacek hasn't changed in thirteen years, and no one can tell me different.
I spent a year and half of my prime childhood years trying to figure out what Detlef Schrempf was. Not who he was, but what he was. I was convinced he was a genetic cross between an iguana and Ivan Drago, created for the specific purpose of embarrassing American basketball players. Schrempf had one of the prettiest jumpers I've ever seen and shot a remarkable percentage for someone who took as many outside shots as he did.
Schrempf also has an entertaining blog: Det's Ramblings, that I suggest you read.

Now for the difficult part: what to say about Luc Longley. I watched almost every one of his games for four years of his career and am still at a loss for words. I think this Longley highlight reel, 95 percent of which is made up of dunks and layups does the trick:   



To truly appreciate Luc Longley, you have to look beyond what he did on the basketball court. As the video shows, what Longley did on the court was far from spectacular. He won three championships with the Bulls, was limited offensively, but was not expected to contribute much other than solid defense and smart passes within the triangle offense. Luc Longley is more interesting when stripped from the context of basketball. Here's some Longley anecdotes:
1) Longley was known as a gentle giant. According to Longley's back-up, Bill Wennington, "[Longley] was just a fun kid. He tried to do his best on the basketball floor, but he really just wanted to have fun. He never wanted to hurt anybody. He actually seemed to love everybody he knew on the team." You can imagine how well his attitude went over with Michael Jordan, who was a tad more unforgiving on the court.
2) During a November west coast trip with Chicago, Longley and teammate Jud Buechler went bodysurfing on their day off. Longley was picked up and dropped by a wave and ended up separating his shoulder. He had to wear a shoulder pad for the next few weeks and his teammates joked that he looked like the Hunchback of Notre Dame. Why do we not have side-by-side pictures of a crippled Longley and the Hunchback of Notre Dame? I wish we had today's version of the Internet back then.
3) In 2009, Longley won a 2,900 dollar eBay bid to name a newly discovered shrimp off the southwest coast of Australia. He named the shrimp after his 15 year-old daughter.
4) While playing for the Suns, Longley was stung twice by a scorpion while sifting through the CD collection in his home.
5) He once backed down from a game of one-on-one against a drunk 60-year-old Lithuanian with a 4-inch vertical leap. Story.

When my confidence as a writer and human being wavers, I think of Luc Longley -- who despite averaging 7 points and 5 rebounds in his 12-year career, won three championships and one of the seven coveted spots on NBA Fastbreak. Anything is possible.