On Momentum In Sports

There's an old adage in baseball that says something like: "All things even out over the course of a season." If an umpire misses a close call at first in favor of the runner, then at some point during the season, the same pitcher will eventually be the beneficiary of a blown call. If a hitter is robbed of a base hit by a nice defensive play, one of his later hits is bound to fall due to a defensive lapse. If a career .300 hitter -- still in the prime of his career and unaffected by any external factors such as injuries has a poor week and bats .150, he's almost certain to have a week where he bats .450, and so on.

The belief in this theory is calming because it gives meaning to the chaos that is baseball. But it's also kind of unsettling in the way that predetermination is unsettling. A hitter can go on a cold streak and unless his name is Adam Dunn, he's eventually going to snap out of it. We know this. Sports remain interesting because we don't know when these particular cold streaks will occur. In the regular season, each player has the opportunity to rake their way out of them -- but in the playoffs, a cold streak can cost your team the season, and there's no opportunity for redemption.

We call these dips and ascensions momentum, and they apply to individual players and entire teams. Momentum is an accepted term in the sporting lexicon. We point to particular moments in a game when we can say "the momentum shifted," and we say teams on winning streaks are in the process of "building momentum." Psychologists have studied perceived momentum in sports for almost forty years. They've developed complicated formulas* and studied specific teams over the course of a season and their results suggest fans and players place too much of a premium on "momentum" as a critical factor to decide a game, season, or in-game situation.

*To me, at least.

However, this doesn't stop us fans and players from believing in it. In 1981, mathematician Robert Adler coined the term "psychological momentum," as the tendency of an effect to follow a similar effect. Positive psychological momentum predicts that success would increase the probability of further success, whereas negative psychological momentum predicts that failure would increase the probability of further failure. Through a process known as the momentum chain, an athlete is more likely to perform well when he or she has been successful in the past.

So while momentum has very little mathematical bearing on all of these previously discussed outcomes, it does have a huge effect on the mentality of an athlete. Basically, if an athlete believes they have momentum, they're more likely to succeed. If they think they don't have the momentum, they're more likely to fail.

I began thinking of momentum today after Tottenham dropped the second match of the Premier League season 5-1 to Manchester City. This coming after a 3-0 loss to Manchester United in the first match of the season. Tottenham are now 0-0-2 with a -7 goal differential and currently sit at the bottom of the table. City and United are the two best teams in the Premier League, so it's likely Spurs would have been smacked around regardless of when they played them. Still, I can't help but think about the timing of this Premier League season. Spurs were supposed to open the season at home against Everton -- a likely win. Three points heading into Old Trafford to start the season probably wouldn't have shifted the outcome in either match, but it would have saved them from becoming bottom-dwellers for the time being. I worry this could have some sort of long-term psychological effect on the players. Losses to United and City seemed inevitable, but I can't help but think having them occur at some point during the middle of the season would have been better. It's in all in the head, it's all in the head...

Mathematicians would chalk up Tottenham's start to bad timing, similar to a great hitting slumping in the playoffs. Psychologists are concerned with the mental makeup which produces the perception of momentum. The math stays relatively consistent. The brain is anything but that. Where is Adam Dunn when you need him?          

EPL Week 2 - City vs. Reds

For two teams with lofty expectations this year, it's never too early to start placing a certain amount of importance on a week two game. The fact is, each team only plays each other twice, so when two teams battling for top 4 position meet up, the match can not be understated.
Chelsea, Manchester United, and Arsenal are the perennial favorites for top 4 position every year, leaving one spot open that both Manchester City and Liverpool look to vacate this year.
Both teams were coming off of poor showings. City was lucky enough to come away with a draw, as goalkeeper Joe Hart made four or five miraculous saves against Spurs last Sunday. Liverpool was looking to bounce back from a goalkeeping error that cost them a win over Arsenal.
Newest City addition James Milner wasted no time getting acclimated to his new club. Milner set up Gareth Barry's goal in the 13th minute with a nice delivery in front of the net. It would be City's only goal of the first half despite dominating possession.
City would strike again right after half time from a set piece. A Micah Richards header off a corner kick may or may not have been deflected into the net by Carlos Tevez. Either way, Tevez celebrated like he nudged it in, and was given credit for the goal.
Tevez would score another goal off a free kick in the 67th minute to put the match out of reach.
City looked much more impressive this week than their first. They took care of the ball much better and led a more focused offensive attack.
Liverpool, however, was out of sync the entire game. Striker Fernando Torres embodied his team's struggles. Still suffering from a groin injury from last July, Torres turned the ball over a few times and appeared slow on some of his shots and deliveries. He was hoping the club season could erase some of the memories of his poor play in South Africa, but so far he has had no such luck.
Reds mounted only one good scoring opportunity the entire game. Approaching the 60th minute, Steven Gerrard bounced a shot off the left post. Hart then successively denied Ngog and Torres to preserve the clean sheet for City.  
Even though we're only two weeks into the season, this match up provided a better sense of where second tier team such as Spurs, City, and Reds are fitting in.