NBA Draft Night Observations

You gotta love the NBA Draft. It's over in under three and half hours, you've actually heard of all the players and have seen many of them play. You can feel good about yourself after the first five picks because they were so obvious you picked them right. Also the blatant favoritism New Yorkers show to Adam Silver (Deputy Commissioner of the NBA, host of the second round) over David Stern (NBA Commissioner, host of the first round) is pretty hilarious. They boo Stern mercilessly, so much so that he's learned to pause in between announcements. NFL fans would never do Roger Goodell like that.
I was trying to come up with an analogy for the NBA draft and the best I could think of was a leaked album on the Internet. So you download the album when it leaks, two weeks before it's actually sold in stores. You listen to it so many times that by the time it's released you already know it by heart and don't feel the need to buy it. Think about it, thousands of mock drafts have been drawn up for the last few months now so you already have a pretty good idea what's going to happen, coupled with Ric Bucher reporting each trade 20 minutes before it goes through, and the excitement of each move is completely sapped.
Anyway, here's a few observations from last night's draft.
The first thing I notice when John Wall gets drafted: new hats. Firstly, each hat has a new logo to presumably make them look cooler. But more importantly, this is the first time that the NBA has switched over from those boring hats with the bent bill and the Velcro on the back that only 35 year old white men wear. I think Stern's head of the UFC (Urban Fashion Commission) whispered in his ear that the players don't look fly enough wearing those old hats. They need fitted hats with the flat bill.
They made a big deal about five Kentucky players being drafted in the first round, and I have to say, I was rooting for it to happen, for no reason other than it's never happened. But here's something that was even more impressive: the first fourteen picks of the draft were all in attendance. It wasn't until Milwaukee selected Larry Sanders at 15 that a draft pick wasn't in attendance. I'm sure they don't keep stats on this, but that has to be the longest streak of all time. Chalk this up to a few possible reasons:
1) Teams are drafting smarter. You're not seeing these reaches for European players in the top 10 like you used to. Teams realize that there's a good chance they won't be able to get out of their contracts for a few years anyway, so they're waiting to draft them in the second round. Point is, there's no surprise picks, so you don't have the number 10 projected player getting drafted in the 20s.
2) The NBA extended invitations to more players this year. Very possible, but if they were going to invite 15 or so, they might as well have invited 20 to include the players like Greivis Vasquez who had to sit in the stands, the equivalent of flying coach.
I also have to commend all of the players who showed up, especially the ones in the green room. If I was a potential first rounder, I'm scouring every single mock draft I can find, and if I'm not top 10 in every last one of them, there's no way I'm showing up. I wouldn't be waiting around like Brady Quinn, forcing myself to smile every time the camera is on me.
Before the draft, it's reported that the Bulls have agreed to trade Kirk Hinrich and the 17th pick to the Wizards for a future second round pick. Why not? Maybe they'd be interested in James Johnson too. The move will clear up another 10 million for the Bulls, putting them around 30 million under the cap. That kind of room allows them to pursue two max level free agents (Plan A: LeBron-Bosh, title contenders the next ten years. Plan B: Johnson-Boozer, EC Finals contenders for the next five years). The deal cannot be finalized until July 8th, when Washington will have the cap room to take on Hinrich's contract.
With the 17th pick the Bulls selected a 20-year old French forward named Kevin Seraphin. Apparently he's a few years away from competing in the NBA, long, athletic, with very raw basketball skills. Sounds a lot like Tyrus Thomas to me, this deal better go through.
Best fan of the night: The Grizzlies select SG Dominique Jones out of South Florida. A fan wearing a Grizzlies jersey turns to the camera, shrugs his shoulders, and says "I have no idea who that is." I appreciate the honesty, and definitely funnier than booing a player because you've never heard of him, New York style.

Worst fan: The guy in the Nets jersey who brought a vuvuzela. The vuvuzela is like an annoying girl who is really good looking. If she's an 8 on a 10 point scale I can deal with it, if she's a 6, then no. The World Cup is an 8 and the NBA Draft is a 6. Leave the vuvuzela at home.
Speaking of New York fans, they were chomping at the bit, waiting not-so-patiently for their 38th and 39th picks. With the 38th pick they take hometown hero, Andy Rautins out of Syracuse. The New York fans rejoice, marking the first time since Patrick Ewing in 1985 that Knicks fans didn't boo a pick. I think to myself, this has to be a pick to make the fans happy. Most likely they're trying to compensate for what will be a questionable 39th pick. The pick is SF Landry Fields out of Stanford. Just like I thought.
Probably the funniest moment of the night was Kentucky C Daniel Orton being drafted 29th overall by the Magic, and the events that ensued. Stuart Scott interviews Magic coach Stan Van Gundy and asks him why he made the pick. "First of all," Van Gundy starts, "I didn't make that pick." Translation: I didn't want to draft a 6'10 center who averaged 3 points and 3 rebounds per game, especially when we have the best center in the league and a backup center who we owe 6 million to next year. A player like Lazar Hayward would have been a better fit, especially since they're shopping Vince Carter.
To follow that up, they cut to the bloopers of Orton attempting to say, "Hello, I'm Daniel Orton, and you're watching the NBA Draft on ESPN." He messed the simple line up multiple times. So we have an end of the 1st round pick who the coach doesn't want, and then an embarrassing clip that Orton thought would be edited out. Not exactly a flattering start to his career. But good luck! Welcome to the NBA everyone.

Forecasting the Top 5 Picks

Monday's NBA Draft lottery had the feel of one of those bad bar jokes. Ok, so an old woman, a Russian billionaire, and a former McDonald's All-American walk into a bar...
Such was the set up for the Washington Wizard's unlikely win of the number 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft. The Wizards (26-56) had a 10.3 percent chance of winning. The Philadelphia 76ers moved up to 2nd, and the favored Nets grabbed the third pick.
Barring trades, here's how the first five picks will look come June 24th.
1) Wizards select John Wall. This is a no brainer for a Wizards franchise that traded Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler mid season, and whose incumbent point guard has had trouble keeping his guns at home. In the last two years, 6 of the 10 players chosen to the First Team All Rookie Team were point guards. Including the last two Rookie of the Year award winners, Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans. In a league that has becoming increasingly dependent on dominant point guards, Wall is the clear choice. The Wizards could move Arenas to the 2 to make room for Wall, and they'd have a nice nucleus composed of Wall, Arenas, and Blatche.
2) 76ers select Evan Turner. The Sixers don't get the first pick, their representative Jrue Holiday rejoices because his starting spot will still be intact. Turner would fit in at the 3, making a nice complement to Andre Iguodala. They both like to get to the basket, but with the ball in Iguodala's hands most of the time, Turner will need to develop a consistent mid range jumper. He'll see plenty of those when teams key on Iguodala's penetration to the hoop.
3) Nets select Derrick Favors. I have to admit, it would have been a lot more interesting had the Nets gotten the number 1 overall pick. That would have allowed them to draft Wall, clear cap room by trading Harris, and possibly pursue two max level free agents. Well, that's not happening now, so the Nets will go with the next available player, Derrick Favors. Favors is a work in progress on offense, however, he will immediately replace the Yi Jianlin/Josh Boone combination at PF. Favors will be a better rebounder than both of them and should develop into a much better low post scorer as well.

4) Timberwolves select Wesley Johnson. The Timberwolves will be tempted to draft Kentucky C DeMarcus Cousins, but will be content with their C/PF combination of Kevin Love and Al Jefferson. Johnson would be a steal at number 4. He's a better shooter and more athletic than Turner. Turner is a better ball handler and can create his own shot, but in the right situation I could see Johnson developing into a better pro.
5) Sacramento Kings select DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins could step in and start immediately in Sacramento alongside Jason Thompson at PF. The only thing dropping Cousins this low is a perceived attitude problem. Right now, he's a better player than Favors. He has a much more polished offensive game, including a soft touch around the basket and is even a capable mid-range shooter. Cousins will further contribute to a team that is already in the top 10 in RPG.